will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Marico
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 210
Target Price (Rs) 232
M/Cap (Rs bn) 135.3
Shares o/s (m) 644.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 45,962 50,687 58,920
EBITDA 6,258 7,846 9,262
Margin (%) 13.6 15.5 15.7
PAT 3,959 5,117 6,289
EPS (Rs) 6.1 7.9 9.8
Growth (%) 19.1 29.2 22.9
RoE (%) 25.3 23.6 24.0
PE (x) 34.2 26.4 21.5
P / BV (x) 6.8 5.7 4.7
EV / E (x) 22.5 17.8 15.0
We estimate a 13% increase in sales of MRCO to Rs14.3bn. Volume growth is
expected to increase across brands as benefits of price reductions and sales
promotions get reflected. However, sales will be affected on account of LBT strike in
Maharashtra which accounts for 25% of parachute sales. EBITDA is expected to
improve by 20% to Rs2.2bn; EBITDA margins will expand 90 bps due to lower ad
spends and other expenditure. PAT is expected to grow 20% to Rs1.4bn. Volume
growth in Parachute and Saffola and sales growth in Deodorants and International
business are the key factors to watch out for.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,319 12,672 13.0 9,973 50,687 45,962 10.3
EBITDA 2,220 1,847 20.2 1,189 7,846 6,258 25.4
Margin (%) 15.5 14.6 92 bps 11.9 15.5 13.6 186 bps
Reported PAT 1,487 1,238 20.1 839 5,117 3,959 29.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,487 1,238 20.1 839 5,117 3,959 29.2
Operating Metrics
Parachute Vol. Gr. (% 6.0 18.0 (1,200)bps 5.0 8.0 7.0 100 bps
Saffola Vol. Gr. (%) 7.0 12.0 (500)bps 5.0 12.0 7.0 500 bps
Hair Oil Vol. Gr. (%) 20.0 25.0 (500)bps 24.0 20.0 24.0 (400)bps
Domestic Vol. Gr. (%) 12.0 16.0 (400)bps 14.0 NA NA NA
Pidilite Industries
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 265
Target Price (Rs) 297
M/Cap (Rs bn) 135.9
Shares o/s (m) 512.6
Sales for PIDI is expected to grow by 16.5% to Rs10.6bn led by 10% volume growth.
Gross margins are expected to improve 220bps to 47% due to stable VAM prices
(~1000USD/Ton). EBITDA margins, however, are expected to improve 90bps due to
inflation in Power, Fuel and Labour cost and increase in advertising expenditure.
EBITDA is expected to grow by 21.5% to Rs2.3bn. Interest cost is estimated to decline
63% to Rs34m on account of payment of FCCB. PAT is expected to be at Rs1.7bn, up
28% YoY.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 33,317 39,762 47,364
EBITDA 6,136 7,498 9,034
Margin (%) 18.4 18.9 19.1
PAT 4,548 5,511 6,811
EPS (Rs) 8.9 10.8 13.3
Growth (%) 29.7 21.2 23.6
RoE (%) 29.2 28.7 29.3
PE (x) 29.9 24.7 20.0
P / BV (x) 7.8 6.4 5.3
EV / E (x) 21.6 17.4 14.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 10,630 9,125 16.5 7,608 39,762 33,317 19.3
EBITDA 2,317 1,907 21.5 1,248 7,498 6,136 22.2
Margin (%) 21.8 20.9 90 bps 16.4 18.9 18.4 44 bps
Reported PAT 1,707 1,343 27.1 992 5,511 4,607 19.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 1,707 1,333 28.1 938 5,511 4,548 21.2
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