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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Siemens
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 525
Target Price (Rs) 423
M/Cap (Rs bn) 178.8
Shares o/s (m) 340.3
We expect the sales to pick up YoY. However, QoQ it is likely to be flat on account of
lower order carry and client-related issues in specific projects leading to delayed
execution. We expect the provision related to the cost overrun in few projects to
reduce, leading to improved margins.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e Sep CY12 CY13E CY14E
Net Sales 129,199 116,282 122,096
EBITDA 8,913 6,977 8,913
Margin (%) 6.9 6.0 7.3
PAT 5,211 3,682 4,802
EPS (Rs) 15.3 10.8 14.1
Growth (%) (38.4) (29.3) 30.2
RoE (%) 13.4 8.9 10.5
PE (x) 34.3 48.6 37.3
P / BV (x) 4.5 4.1 3.7
EV / E (x) 19.0 23.4 17.8
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e Sep
Q3
CY13E
Q3
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Q2
CY13
9M
CY13E
9M
CY12
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 29,855 28,434 5.0 29,556 84,267 90,375 (6.8)
EBITDA 1,791 967 85.3 753 4,160 7,142 (41.8)
Margin (%) 6.0 3.4 260 bps 2.5 4.9 7.9 (297)bps
Reported PAT 868 365 138.0 300 1,898 4,112 (53.8)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 868 365 138.0 300 1,898 4,112 (53.8)
Operating Metrics
Order Book (Rs bn) 115 124 (7.6) 122 369 391 (5.5)
Order Inflows (Rs bn 22 27 (18.5) 20 63 73 (13.8)
Thermax
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 624
Target Price (Rs) 652
M/Cap (Rs bn) 74.4
Shares o/s (m) 119.2
We expect the execution to remain weak during the quarter due to lower order
carry. We expect healthy run-rate of order inflow to continue. We expect fresh order
intake to be ~Rs11.5bn. We expect margins to be maintained at 9.5% due to costcontrol
measures adopted by the company.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 54,917 57,316 62,674
EBITDA 4,902 5,608 6,732
Margin (%) 8.9 9.8 10.7
PAT 3,054 3,464 4,316
EPS (Rs) 25.6 29.1 36.2
Growth (%) (22.1) 13.4 24.6
RoE (%) 17.5 17.1 18.4
PE (x) 24.3 21.5 17.2
P / BV (x) 4.0 3.4 3.0
EV / E (x) 14.5 11.9 9.2
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 9,146 9,835 (7.0) 14,682 48,672 46,908 3.8
EBITDA 866 964 (10.2) 1,673 5,123 5,011 2.2
Margin (%) 9.5 9.8 (33)bps 11.4 10.5 10.7 (16)bps
Reported PAT 630 673 (6.3) 1,154 3,637 3,499 3.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 630 673 (6.3) 1,154 3,637 3,499 3.9
Operating Metrics (Rs bn)
Order book 43.3 44.7 (3.1) 43.4 47.1 43.9 7.3
Order Inflow 11.5 12.5 (8.0) 11.6 53.6 48.5 10.5
July 8, 2013 86