will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
CEAT
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 109
Target Price (Rs) 126
M/Cap (Rs bn) 3.7
Shares o/s (m) 34.3
CEAT is expected to post a flat growth YoY in its top-line, mainly on account of a
slowdown in OEM as well as the replacement market. On a sequential basis, natural
rubber price has increased by 12% QoQ. As a result, we expect the company to
report a 170bps decline in EBITDA margins QoQ.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 48,815 52,390 56,621
EBITDA 4,244 4,744 5,350
Margin (%) 8.7 9.1 9.4
PAT 1,202 1,434 1,893
EPS (Rs) 35.1 41.9 55.3
Growth (%) 1,031.8 19.3 32.0
RoE (%) 17.1 17.7 19.8
PE (x) 3.1 2.6 2.0
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.4 0.4
EV / E (x) 3.7 3.2 2.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 12,046 11,870 1.5 13,106 52,390 48,815 7.3
EBITDA 1,070 1,050 1.9 1,393 4,744 4,244 11.8
Margin (%) 8.9 8.8 3 bps 10.6 9.1 8.7 36 bps
Reported PAT 299 258 16.1 609 1,434 1,062 35.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 299 258 16.1 609 1,434 1,202 19.3
Operating Metrics
Tonnage (MT) 54,870 51,500 6.5 59,000 230,510 215,000 7.2
Realization / kg 220 230 (4.7) 222 227 227 0.1
Recipe cos t / kg 149 163 (8.2) 148 156 157 (0.8)
Exide Industries
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 122
Target Price (Rs) 137
M/Cap (Rs bn) 103.9
Shares o/s (m) 850.0
Exide is likely to post a muted 3.5% QoQ de-growth in its top-line, mainly on account
of a delayed recovery in demand for inverter batteries (a de-growth) and lower OEM
sales. The decline in industrial batteries is likely to be compensated by the doubledigit
growth in the replacement segment and price hikes ~4.0 QoQ. However, on
account of rupee depreciation by ~5%, the benefit of price hike would be negated.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 60,767 67,575 78,165
EBITDA 7,896 9,136 11,132
Margin (%) 13.0 13.5 14.2
PAT 5,228 6,014 7,250
EPS (Rs) 6.2 7.1 8.5
Growth (%) 13.3 15.0 20.5
RoE (%) 16.1 16.4 17.4
PE (x) 16.9 14.7 12.2
P / BV (x) 3.0 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 13.1 11.1 8.9
*Adj. for Subs. & insurance value of Rs18/share
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 14,992 15,536 (3.5) 15,412 67,575 60,767 11.2
EBITDA 1,997 2,328 (14.2) 2,044 9,136 7,896 15.7
Margin (%) 13.3 15.0 (166)bps 13.3 13.5 13.0 53 bps
Reported PAT 1,350 1,520 (11.2) 1,465 6,014 5,228 15.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,350 1,520 (11.2) 1,465 6,014 5,228 15.0
July 8, 2013 53