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Aor-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Surjit Arora
surjitarora@plindia.com
+91-22-6632 2235
Top picks
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Auto Ancillary
Ancillary companies under our coverage are expected to post a decline of 1.5% YoY,
mainly attributed to a lower demand across the board mirroring the state of the
auto industry. Both Batteries and Tyres are likely to be impacted on account of lower
OE demand and softening replacement segment growth.
Key Raw Material
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
Avg. Rubber Prices (Rs /kg)
Crude Prices (US$ / bbl) (RHS)
Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14E
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
Source: PL Research
Stock Performance
PAT, for our coverage universe, is expected to decline by 23.5% YoY, mainly on
account of steep decline in profitability for Bharat Forge (CV volumes down more
than 10%), Apollo Tyres (de-growth in standalone business and flat growth in
Europe) and Motherson Sumi likely to be impacted by slowdown in the domestic car
market.
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Amara Raja Batteries 5.8 1.6 1.8 73.3 6.4 (3.2) 3.9 63.1
Apollo Tyres (33.7) (27.5) (32.4) (26.2) (33.2) (32.3) (30.3) (36.5)
Bharat Forge (4.3) 3.2 (16.3) (30.0) (3.8) (1.6) (14.2) (40.3)
CEAT (1.1) 20.6 (2.2) 7.1 (0.6) 15.8 (0.0) (3.2)
Exide Industries (11.3) (0.6) (17.7) (10.5) (10.7) (5.4) (15.6) (20.8)
Motherson Sumi Systems (0.3) 9.6 5.7 88.6 0.2 4.8 7.8 78.3
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
July 8, 2013 49