will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Larsen & Toubro
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 1,403
Target Price (Rs) 1,645
M/Cap (Rs bn) 863.4
Shares o/s (m) 615.4
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 608,738 689,490 794,395
EBITDA 64,200 73,520 88,497
Margin (%) 10.5 10.7 11.1
PAT 45,499 47,551 55,385
EPS (Rs) 73.9 77.3 90.0
Growth (%) 2.4 4.5 16.5
RoE (%) 16.7 15.4 15.9
PE (x)* 13.2 12.6 10.8
P / BV (x) 3.0 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 14.6 12.8 10.6
*Adj. for Subs. Val of Rs430/share
Order inflow is expected to be at Rs197bn (there could be some order bookings
which are not disclosed to the tune of Rs60-70bn) as against Rs279bn in Q4FY13 and
Rs196bn in Q1FY13. The single largest order in this quarter is Rs67bn from DFC.
Buildings and Urban Infra segment still looks strong.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 133,554 119,554 11.7 202,938 689,490 608,738 13.3
EBITDA 14,440 13,040 10.7 24,509 73,520 64,200 14.5
Margin (%) 10.8 10.9 (10)bps 12.1 10.7 10.5 12 bps
Reported PAT 8,970 8,637 3.9 17,879 47,551 49,107 (3.2)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 8,970 8,506 5.5 17,692 47,551 45,499 4.5
Operating Metrics
E&C (Rs m) 118,863 104,898 13.3 183,923 552,281 545,010 1.3
E&E (Rs m) 5,342 7,603 (29.7) 11,169 28,973 36,440 (20.5)
Order intake (Rs bn) 197 196 0.7 279 1,028 880 16.8
Order Book (Rs bn) 1,600 1,531 4.5 1,536 1,875 1,536 22.0
NCC
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 27
Target Price (Rs) 33
M/Cap (Rs bn) 6.8
Shares o/s (m) 256.6
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 56,594 62,595 68,854
EBITDA 4,055 4,881 5,357
Margin (%) 7.2 7.8 7.8
PAT 503 747 1,071
EPS (Rs) 2.0 2.9 4.2
Growth (%) 39.6 48.5 43.3
RoE (%) 2.1 3.0 4.1
PE (x)* 3.6 3.1 2.5
P / BV (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV / E (x) 7.0 5.6 4.8
*Adj to Sub Valn & Int. Earnings of Rs11/sh.
NCC has not reported any orders on exchanges and thus, we believe, there could be
an order inflow below Rs2-3bn in Q1FY14E. Revenues will show a 2% growth YoY and
margins are expected to be at 7.3% down by 60bps YoY. However, an increase in
margins is expected to be hampered by higher interest costs.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 15,012 14,721 2.0 16,783 62,595 56,594 10.6
EBITDA 1,100 1,167 (5.7) 940 4,881 4,055 20.4
Margin (%) 7.3 7.9 (60)bps 5.6 7.8 7.2 63 bps
Reported PAT 119 166 (28.2) 272 747 639 16.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 119 166 (28.2) 268 747 503 48.5
Operating Metrics
OB (Rs bn) 169 200 (15.5) 184 150 186 (19.0)
Pwr/Elec./Metals/
O&G (Rs m)
3,222 3,680 (12.4)
4,196 9,389 8,489 10.6
Bldgs. (Rs m) 5,035 4,122 22.2 4,699 15,649 14,149 10.6
Int. as a % to sales 6.7 6.3 33 bps 6.7 5.7 7.2 (148)bps
Debt (Rs bn) 25.0 24.5 2.0 26.0 21.7 22.3 (2.8)
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