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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Sterlite Industries
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 83
Target Price (Rs) 85
M/Cap (Rs bn) 277.5
Shares o/s (m) 3,361.2
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 449,219 482,341 515,081
EBITDA 102,285 119,645 126,316
Margin (%) 22.8 24.8 24.5
PAT 61,610 57,287 61,823
EPS (Rs) 18.3 17.0 18.4
Growth (%) 9.9 (7.0) 7.9
RoE (%) 12.7 10.8 10.7
PE (x) 4.5 4.8 4.5
P / BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5
EV / E (x) 2.1 1.5 0.9
EBITDA is expected to decline 36.4% QoQ at Rs20.6bn due to closure of copper
smelter during the quarter and weak earnings in the rest of businesses excluding
power. We expect fall of 98%, 51%, 38% in EBITDA of copper, aluminium and
International zinc biz, respectively. Power biz’s EBITDA is expected to grow 23.6% at
Rs3.4bn on the back of higher PLF in SEL. Company’s share of loss in VAL is expected
at Rs2.6bn on account of fall in realisations, forex loss and higher cost due to
shutdown of refinery. Hence, adjusted PAT would decline 55% QoQ at Rs8.7bn.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 67,526 105,914 (36.2) 126,092 482,341 449,219 7.4
EBITDA 20,617 22,512 (8.4) 32,421 119,645 102,285 17.0
Margin (%) 30.5 21.3 928 bps 25.7 24.8 22.8 204 bps
Reported PAT 4,974 12,016 (58.6) 19,246 57,287 60,603 (5.5)
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 8,734 13,484 (35.2) 19,514 57,287 61,610 (7.0)
Operating Metrics
LME-Aluminium 1,835 1,978 (7.2) 2,000 2,000 1,974 1.3
Price per unit (SEL) (Rs) 3.3 3.4 (4.1) 3.2 3.5 3.5 0.0
EBITDA-Zinc (Int. Op.) 2,696 3,370 (20.0) 4,340 14,967 14,073 6.4
EBITDA-Sterlite Copper 82 2,650 (96.9) 3,750 11,940 10,938 9.2
EBITDA-Aluminium 415 570 (27.1) 850 6,976 2,603 168.0
EBITDA-SEL 3,407 2,655 28.3 2,757 17,280 12,892 34.0
July 8, 2013 134