will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
Apr-Jun 2013 Earn<strong>in</strong>gs Preview<br />
NTPC<br />
Rat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Accumulate<br />
Price (Rs) 140<br />
Target Price (Rs) 179<br />
M/Cap (Rs bn) 1,157.7<br />
Shares o/s (m) 8,245.5<br />
NTPC availed from KFA for a term loan of EUR95m to part f<strong>in</strong>ance the capital<br />
expenditure on renovation and retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g of Electrostatic Precipitators apart from<br />
Rs20bn from BOI for capex and m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g expenditures. The generation <strong>in</strong> Q1FY14E is<br />
expected to be at Rs59bn; however, lower PLFs <strong>will</strong> be lower at 84%.<br />
Key Figures (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E<br />
Net Sales 662,980 747,123 826,058<br />
EBITDA 177,381 185,561 196,846<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 26.8 24.8 23.8<br />
PAT 91,858 106,650 113,416<br />
EPS (Rs) 11.1 12.9 13.8<br />
Growth (%) 11.2 16.1 6.3<br />
RoE (%) 12.0 12.5 12.2<br />
PE (x) 12.6 10.9 10.2<br />
P / BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2<br />
EV / E (x) 8.7 9.1 8.8<br />
Quarterly Table (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March<br />
Q1<br />
FY14E<br />
Q1<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Q4<br />
FY13<br />
12M<br />
FY14E<br />
12M<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Net Sales 164,122 159,600 2.8 164,618 747,123 662,980 12.7<br />
EBITDA 39,389 36,306 8.5 39,065 185,561 177,381 4.6<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 24.0 22.7 125 bps 23.7 24.8 26.8 (192)bps<br />
Reported PAT 25,316 24,987 1.3 43,816 106,650 126,193 (15.5)<br />
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 25,316 24,987 1.3 25,593 106,650 91,858 16.1<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g Metrics<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g( Thermal) 33,882 28,695 18.1 33,882 36,368 33,885 7.3<br />
Avg. Coal PLF (%) 84.0 86.4 (240)bps 86.9 87.0 83.0 396 bps<br />
Generation (Rs m) 59 59 (0.2) 60 254 230 10.3<br />
PTC India<br />
Rat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Accumulate<br />
Price (Rs) 49<br />
Target Price (Rs) 75<br />
M/Cap (Rs bn) 14.5<br />
Shares o/s (m) 296.0<br />
We expect PTC to report 25% growth YoY <strong>in</strong> unit sales at 5.5bn units and the<br />
realizations are expected to be Rs3.5/unit. Trad<strong>in</strong>g marg<strong>in</strong>s are expected to be<br />
around 40paise/unit. As the SEBs across states have taken a hike, dues of Rs5bn<br />
outstand<strong>in</strong>g to them are expected to get cleared gradually.<br />
Key Figures (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E<br />
Net Sales 88,562 101,615 125,200<br />
EBITDA 1,694 1,865 2,286<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 1.9 1.8 1.8<br />
PAT 1,144 1,252 1,488<br />
EPS (Rs) 3.9 4.2 5.0<br />
Growth (%) 51.4 9.4 18.9<br />
RoE (%) 5.0 5.3 6.1<br />
PE (x) 12.6 11.6 9.7<br />
P / BV (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6<br />
EV / E (x) 6.4 6.3 4.8<br />
Quarterly Table (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March<br />
Q1<br />
FY14E<br />
Q1<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Q4<br />
FY13<br />
12M<br />
FY14E<br />
12M<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Net Sales 23,371 19,869 17.6 21,987 101,615 88,562 14.7<br />
EBITDA 409 313 30.7 512 1,865 1,694 10.1<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 1.7 1.6 17 bps 2.3 1.8 1.9 (8)bps<br />
Reported PAT 302 252 19.5 371 1,452 1,288 12.7<br />
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 267 222 19.9 280 1,252 1,144 9.4<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g Metrics<br />
Trad<strong>in</strong>g vol. (m units 7,412 6,495 14.1 6,732 32,465 28,579 13.6<br />
July 8, 2013 158
Change language