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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Complex fertilizer sales declined by 60% YoY for the industry during
Apr/May’13
Complex fertiliser sales volumes‐mt
On YTD basis (Apr-May’13), complex fertiliser sales have declined by 60% YoY
(imported volumes declined by 71% YoY, while manufactured volumes declined by
53% YoY). On the other hand, urea sales were lower by 8% YoY during the same
period. We expect urea demand to remain steady; however, company level complex
fertiliser sales would continue to remain under pressure in FY14E. Though we have
started witnessing improved offtake by famers with the timely arrival of monsoons,
huge inventory of complex fertilizers is likely to limit company level sales growth in
FY14E.
Product‐mt FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 YTD FY13 YTDFY14 % change
Imported DAP 5,805,146 7,541,386 6,902,274 5,467,985 319,138 111,745 ‐65.0%
Imported NPK - 1,076,379 3,299,541 1,077,956 210,450 5,326 ‐97.5%
MoP 4,675,723 3,899,849 2,994,530 2,135,938 221,957 107,281 ‐51.7%
Others imported 135,757 88,443 323,505 89,603 7,969 - NA
Total Imported 10,616,626 12,606,057 13,519,850 8,771,482 759,514 224,352 ‐70.5%
Indigenous DAP 4,347,054 3,565,397 4,010,539 3,669,475 400,874 130,243 ‐67.5%
Indigenous NPK 8,062,410 9,151,715 7,769,499 6,224,809 557,793 298,443 ‐46.5%
Other complex indigenous (excl. SSP, TSP) 145,336 556,898 479,583 453,725 51,331 36,431 ‐29.0%
SSP, TSP 119,115 3,483,002 3,438,899 4,007,080 300,599 145,765 ‐51.5%
Total indigenous fert 12,673,915 16,757,012 15,698,520 14,355,089 1,310,597 610,882 ‐53.4%
Total complex fert 23,290,541 29,363,069 29,218,370 23,126,571 2,070,111 835,234 ‐59.7%
Urea 25,233,711 27,115,837 29,356,568 30,159,512 3,362,803 3,104,677 ‐7.7%
Source: Ministry of Fertilisers, PL Research
Sowing picks up with the onset of monsoons
Recent data with the Ministry of Agriculture shows that sowing has been done in 251
lakh hectares this year compared to 135.9 lakh hectares last year. All crops except
sugarcane have witnessed increase in acreages this year. Increase in MSPs of
oilseeds and pulses have given a boost to their production.
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