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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Rallis India
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 138
Target Price (Rs) 140
M/Cap (Rs bn) 26.8
Shares o/s (m) 194.5
We expect consolidated revenues to increase by 15.0% YoY to Rs4.0bn. Standalone
revenues are expected to increase by 12% YoY, while Metahelix is likely to report
revenue growth of 25% YoY. We expect standalone margins to improve 70bps YoY to
11.1%. Metahelix margins are expected to improve by 120bps YoY to 19.0% driven
by improved operating leverage. On a consol basis, we expect EBITDA of Rs515m,
24% YoY, with margins of 13.0%. However, due to lower interest, we expect PAT to
increase by 36% YoY to Rs291m.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 14,582 16,224 18,412
EBITDA 2,131 2,557 2,974
Margin (%) 14.6 15.8 16.2
PAT 1,157 1,526 1,853
EPS (Rs ) 6.0 7.8 9.5
Growth (%) 0.1 31.9 21.4
RoE (%) 19.7 22.8 23.7
PE (x) 23.5 17.8 14.7
P / BV (x) 4.4 3.8 3.2
EV / E (x) 12.9 10.7 9.1
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 3,971 3,453 15.0 2,849 16,224 14,582 11.3
EBITDA 515 415 24.2 282 2,557 2,131 20.0
Margin (%) 13.0 12.0 97 bps 9.9 15.8 14.6 115 bps
Reported PAT 291 242 20.3 113 1,526 1,191 28.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 291 213 36.2 113 1,526 1,157 31.9
Tata Chemicals
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs ) 276
Target Price (Rs) 330
M/Cap (Rs bn) 70.3
Shares o/s (m) 254.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 148,061 153,446 163,305
EBITDA 21,180 23,109 25,003
Margin (%) 14.3 15.1 15.3
PAT 7,735 8,404 9,457
EPS (Rs) 30.4 33.0 37.1
Growth (%) (15.4) 8.6 12.5
RoE (%) 12.1 12.6 13.0
PE (x) 9.1 8.4 7.4
P / BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
EV / E (x) 5.7 5.0 4.5
We expect company to report consolidated revenues of Rs31.8bn, 4% YoY. We
expect standalone sales to increase by 2.2% YoY to Rs15.7bn driven by increase in
chemicals revenues by 15.0% YoY. We expect North America sales to decline by 5%
YoY to Rs6.3bn due to pricing pressures. Europe is likely to report sales de-growth of
9.0% YoY to Rs5.3bn due to lower volumes.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 31,838 30,661 3.8 33,915 153,446 148,061 3.6
EBITDA 4,638 4,948 (6.3) 4,706 23,109 21,180 9.1
Margin (%) 14.6 16.1 (157)bps 13.9 15.1 14.3 76 bps
Reported PAT 1,572 1,076 46.1 (1,875) 8,404 7,864 6.9
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 1,572 1,563 0.6 2,123 8,404 7,735 8.6
Operating Metrics
Standalone sales (Rs m)
Inorganic chemicals 7,898 6,868 15.0 7,743 33,856 29,252 15.7
Fertilisers 6,809 6,747 0.9 12,081 47,196 52,029 (9.3)
EBIT Margins (%)
Inorganic chemicals 24.0 24.5 (46)bps 23.0 24.2 23.5 72 bps
Fertilisers 6.0 6.5 (45)bps 2.9 6.1 5.9 26 bps
July 8, 2013 39