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Apr-Jun 2013 Earn<strong>in</strong>gs Preview<br />

NPA Movement ‐ PSU banks ‐ Slippages and restructur<strong>in</strong>g to rema<strong>in</strong> elevated<br />

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14E<br />

Open<strong>in</strong>g 396,760 471,560 492,020 534,580 511,900<br />

Additions 108,440 66,950 81,750 58,680 58,000<br />

Upgradation + Recovery 32,820 26,770 27,970 57,180 28,000<br />

Union<br />

BOB<br />

BOI<br />

PNB<br />

SBI<br />

Write-offs 820 19,720 11,220 24,180 5,000<br />

Gross Slippages % 4.9% 2.9% 3.4% 2.3% 2.2%<br />

Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 1.1%<br />

Net Slippages (%) 3.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 1.1%<br />

Open<strong>in</strong>g 87,200 99,890 140,250 139,978 134,658<br />

Addition 27,690 45,440 29,690 29,570 30,000<br />

Cash Recovery 5,700 3,840 11,540 15,910 9,000<br />

Upgradation 8,960 1,080 18,010 18,720 9,000<br />

Write off 340 160 400 260 500<br />

Clos<strong>in</strong>g 99,890 140,250 139,990 134,658 146,158<br />

Annualized Slippages % 3.8% 6.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%<br />

Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 2.0% 0.7% 4.0% 4.6% 2.3%<br />

Net Slippages (%) 1.8% 5.5% 0.0% ‐0.7% 1.5%<br />

Open<strong>in</strong>g 59,076 67,636 88,980 86,290 87,720<br />

Slippages 17,470 27,334 12,210 16,770 18,000<br />

Recovery 3,620 2,871 3,650 2,310 3,000<br />

Upgradation 3,220 1,072 3,140 170 1,000<br />

Write off 2,070 1,097 8,110 12,860 6,000<br />

Clos<strong>in</strong>g 67,636 89,795 86,290 87,720 95,720<br />

Annualized Slippages % 2.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%<br />

Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5%<br />

Net Slippages (%) 1.7% 3.6% 0.8% 2.0% 1.9%<br />

Open<strong>in</strong>g 44,649 53,196 59,348 73,215 79,825<br />

Additions 12,567 14,715 19,997 21,160 19,000<br />

Recovery 1,249 1,740 1,016 2,251 3,000<br />

Upgradations 1,342 1,039 1,018 11 1,000<br />

Write offs 1,955 5,783 3,538 12,288 3,000<br />

Clos<strong>in</strong>g 53,196 59,348 73,215 79,825 91,825<br />

Annualized Slippages % 1.75% 2.04% 2.70% 2.70% 2.31%<br />

Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 0.36% 0.38% 0.27% 0.28% 0.49%<br />

Net Slippages (%) 1.39% 1.66% 2.43% 2.42% 1.83%<br />

Open<strong>in</strong>g 54,500 65,410 64,700 63,840 63,140<br />

Additions 16,310 7,920 6,770 8,750 10,000<br />

Upgrades/Recoveries 4,610 6,270 4,530 4,420 4,000<br />

Write offs 790 2,360 3,100 5,030 2,000<br />

Clos<strong>in</strong>g 65,410 64,700 63,840 63,140 67,140<br />

Slippages 3.91% 1.80% 1.56% 1.95% 2.03%<br />

Reductions (excl. Write‐offs %) 1.10% 1.43% 1.04% 0.99% 0.81%<br />

Net Slippages (%) 2.80% 0.38% 0.52% 0.97% 1.22%<br />

Source: Company Data, PL Research<br />

July 8, 2013 60

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