will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com
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Apr-Jun 2013 Earn<strong>in</strong>gs Preview<br />
Consolidated Sectoral Data<br />
Key Figures (Rs m)<br />
2013 2014E 2015E<br />
Net Sales 981,048 1,126,557 1,316,562<br />
Growth (%) 16.8 14.8 16.9<br />
EBITDA 204,540 242,406 287,534<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 20.8 21.5 21.8<br />
PAT 145,850 167,707 201,640<br />
Growth (%) 20.1 15.0 20.2<br />
PE (x) 37.9 33.0 27.4<br />
Quarterly Table (Rs m)<br />
Apr‐Jun'13 Apr‐Jun'12 YoY gr. (%) Jan‐Mar'13 QoQ gr. (%)<br />
Net Sales 263,924 230,765 14.4 254,478 3.7<br />
EBITDA 56,210 47,937 17.3 50,944 10.3<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 21.3 20.8 52 bps 20.0 128 bps<br />
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 39,704 34,890 13.8 37,228 6.7<br />
Note: Revenue, EBITDA and PAT numbers are arrived by total<strong>in</strong>g correspond<strong>in</strong>g numbers of all <strong>com</strong>panies under our coverage <strong>in</strong> this<br />
sector.<br />
Asian Pa<strong>in</strong>ts<br />
Rat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Reduce<br />
Price (Rs) 4,673<br />
Target Price (Rs) 4,420<br />
M/Cap (Rs bn) 448.2<br />
Shares o/s (m) 95.9<br />
Key Figures (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E<br />
Net Sales 109,707 126,129 148,831<br />
EBITDA 17,319 21,077 24,810<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 15.8 16.7 16.7<br />
PAT 11,137 13,380 16,307<br />
EPS (Rs) 116.1 139.5 170.0<br />
Growth (%) 8.9 20.1 21.9<br />
RoE (%) 36.0 35.6 35.6<br />
PE (x) 40.2 33.5 27.5<br />
P / BV (x) 13.2 10.9 8.9<br />
EV / E (x) 25.4 20.6 17.2<br />
Consol. sales are expected to grow 13%. Gross marg<strong>in</strong>s are expected to improve<br />
120bps to 42.8% as Tio2 prices are down 22% YoY. EBITDA is expected to grow 18% to<br />
Rs5.2bn, as marg<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong>crease 76bps. PAT is expected to <strong>in</strong>crease 13.8% to Rs3.3bn.<br />
Domestic volume growth is estimated at 6% on a low base (-2% <strong>in</strong> Q1FY13). Impact of<br />
5% <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> Tio2 prices by DuPont and rupee depreciation are the key factors to<br />
watch out for <strong>in</strong> the <strong>com</strong><strong>in</strong>g quarters.<br />
Quarterly Table (Rs m)<br />
Y/e March<br />
Q1<br />
FY14E<br />
Q1<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Q4<br />
FY13<br />
12M<br />
FY14E<br />
12M<br />
FY13<br />
YoY gr.<br />
(%)<br />
Net Sales 28,694 25,393 13.0 27,137 126,129 109,707 15.0<br />
EBITDA 5,165 4,379 18.0 3,735 21,077 17,319 21.7<br />
Marg<strong>in</strong> (%) 18.0 17.2 76 bps 13.8 16.7 15.8 92 bps<br />
Reported PAT 3,283 2,884 13.8 2,511 13,380 11,137 20.1<br />
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 3,283 2,884 13.8 2,511 13,380 11,137 20.1<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g Metrics<br />
Decoratives Volume<br />
Growth %<br />
6.0 (2.0) NA<br />
2.5 10.0 7.5 250 bps<br />
Gross Marg<strong>in</strong>s % 42.8 41.6 120 bps 42.8 41.9 41.3 63 bps<br />
Tio2 Price Index 220 288 (18.9) 223 NA NA NA<br />
July 8, 2013 107
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