will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jul 2013 Earnings Preview
Stock Performance
M&M: We have assumed a volume CAGR of 10% in tractors over FY13-FY15 period.
We expect the margins to improve by ~60bps during the quarter led by favourable
product mix (tractors account for ~36.5% of volumes, increased of 550bps YoY). With
an earnings CAGR of 15%+ for FY13-FY15E period and attractive valuations of core
business at 10.8x FY15E EPS (M&M + MVML), we prefer M&M over MSIL with a SOTP
based TP of Rs1,098.
Absolute
Relative to Sensex
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
Ashok Leyland (19.3) (15.6) (30.3) (27.5) (18.8) (20.5) (28.2) (37.8)
Bajaj Auto 6.8 9.2 (15.3) 21.0 7.3 4.4 (13.1) 10.7
Hero Motocorp 0.4 11.7 (12.1) (20.6) 0.9 6.9 (10.0) (30.9)
Mahindra & Mahindra (1.9) 12.8 (1.1) 29.5 (1.4) 8.0 1.0 19.3
Maruti Suzuki (0.2) 9.2 (1.5) 27.6 0.3 4.4 0.6 17.3
Tata Motors (4.7) 12.1 (8.4) 19.6 (4.1) 7.3 (6.3) 9.3
Source: Bloomberg, PL Research
Summary Financials ‐ Quarterly (Rs m)
Ashok Leyland
Bajaj Auto
Hero Motocorp
Mahindra &
Mahindra
Ma ruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Q1FY14E Q1FY13 YoY gr. (%) Q4FY13 QoQ gr. (%) 12MFY14E 12MFY13 YoY gr. (%)
Sales 22,745 30,073 (24.4) 37,285 (39.0) 139,666 124,812 11.9
EBITDA 483 2,477 (80.5) 1,983 (75.7) 10,087 8,765 15.1
Margins (%) 2.1 8.2 (612)bps 5.3 (320)bps 7.2 7.0 20 bps
PAT (1,097) 739 NA 157 NA 2,082 1,442 44.4
Sales 48,042 49,557 (3.1) 48,402 (0.7) 221,822 203,510 9.0
EBITDA 9,367 9,617 (2.6) 9,303 0.7 44,019 39,890 10.4
Margins (%) 19.5 19.4 9bps 19.2 28 bps 19.8 19.6 24 bps
PAT 7,055 7,184 (1.8) 6,970 1.2 32,936 29,746 10.7
Sales 63,056 62,473 0.9 61,458 2.6 255,616 237,681 7.5
EBITDA 8,766 9,369 (6.4) 8,498 3.2 36,648 32,846 11.6
Margins (%) 13.9 15.0 (109)bps 13.8 8bps 14.3 13.8 52 bps
PAT 5,455 6,155 (11.4) 5,742 (5.0) 22,051 21,005 5.0
Sales 105,232 93,674 12.3 104,866 0.3 458,880 404,413 13.5
EBITDA 13,074 11,094 17.8 12,701 2.9 56,336 47,094 19.6
Margins (%) 12.4 11.8 58 bps 12.1 31 bps 12.3 11.6 63 bps
PAT 8,421 7,256 16.1 7,990 5.4 38,717 32,623 18.7
Sales 103,267 107,782 (4.2) 133,040 (22.4) 463,284 435,879 6.3
EBITDA 11,721 7,863 49.1 19,996 (41.4) 51,288 42,297 21.3
Margins (%) 11.4 7.3 406 bps 15.0 (368)bps 11.1 9.7 137 bps
PAT 7,198 4,238 69.9 12,396 (41.9) 28,449 23,921 18.9
Sales 458,286 433,236 5.8 560,016 (18.2) 2,193,688 1,888,176 16.2
EBITDA 63,564 62,547 1.6 83,294 (23.7) 323,030 265,890 21.5
Margins (%) 13.9 14.4 (57)bps 14.9 (100)bps 14.7 14.1 64 bps
PAT 22,070 26,858 (17.8) 39,241 (43.8) 119,220 105,517 13.0
July 8, 2013 44