will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
DLF
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 175
Target Price (Rs) 234
M/Cap (Rs bn) 310.9
Shares o/s (m) 1,774.8
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 77,728 101,761 107,609
EBITDA 26,262 37,143 39,923
Margin (%) 33.8 36.5 37.1
PAT 7,623 8,487 11,024
EPS (Rs) 4.5 4.8 6.2
Growth (%) (37.8) 6.5 29.9
RoE (%) 3.0 3.2 3.9
PE (x) 39.0 36.6 28.2
P / BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1
EV / E (x) 21.3 14.7 13.7
With the vacation of the stay order on the ‘Crest’ project by the SC, the project
seems to be on track. The company sold 250 flats at a rate of Rs18k/sq.ft at the
project within a couple of days of the launch. The quarter also witnessed a plotted
launch in the New Gurgaon area as well as release of additional area for sale at
Lucknow and Mullanpur. As per the management, the windmill transaction shall be
completed by early July and shall accrue Rs8bn. With regards to the Aman proceeds,
we still do not have any clarity.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 23,175 21,977 5.5 22,256 101,761 77,728 30.9
EBITDA 8,807 10,670 (17.5) 7,258 37,143 26,262 41.4
Margin (%) 38.0 48.6 (1,055)bps 32.6 36.5 33.8 271 bps
Reported PAT 2,123 2,928 (27.5) (42) 8,487 7,119 19.2
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 2,123 2,943 (27.9) 501 8,487 7,623 11.3
Operating Metrics
Development Business
Sales (Msf) 2.6 1.3 94.0 2.0 7.0 7.2 (3.2)
Annuity Business
Leases (Msf) 0.3 0.3 (13.8) 0.2 3.0 1.1 163.2
HDIL
Rating
Reduce
Price (Rs) 37
Target Price (Rs) 24
M/Cap (Rs bn) 15.6
Shares o/s (m) 419.0
Since five projects are likely to get completed in FY14, we expect majority of the
revenues from these projects. Overall the situation remains bleak with the
termination of the MIAL project and slowness in debtor realization of the previously
undertaken FSI sales. We also expect revenues to be contributed from FSI sales at
Virar and Vasai.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 10,252 14,322 17,288
EBITDA 6,723 5,623 7,605
Margin (%) 65.6 39.3 44.0
PAT 5,156 2,805 4,307
EPS (Rs) 12.3 6.7 10.3
Growth (%) (36.9) (45.6) 53.5
RoE (%) 5.0 2.7 4.0
PE (x) 3.0 5.6 3.6
P / BV (x) 0.2 0.1 0.1
EV / E (x) 8.1 10.5 7.9
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,395 2,012 (30.7) 1,427 14,322 10,252 39.7
EBITDA 825 1,577 (47.7) 1,049 5,623 6,723 (16.4)
Margin (%) 59.1 78.4 (1,927)bps 73.5 39.3 65.6 (2,631)bps
Reported PAT 405 1,054 (61.6) (2,800) 2,805 736 281.0
PAT (Excl. Ex Items) 405 1,054 (61.6) (2,800) 2,805 5,156 (45.6)
Operating Metrics
FSI Sales (Rs m) 265 2,012 (86.8) 357 7,500 8,930 (16.0)
July 8, 2013 170