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Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 245
Target Price (Rs) 332
M/Cap (Rs bn) 21.6
Shares o/s (m) 88.0
Being a seasonally weak quarter, we expect member additions to decline on a
sequnetial basis. However, with the strong room addition of 431 in FY13, we expect
member additions to grow on a YoY basis. Currently, MHRL has Greenfield projects
underway that gives us a visibility of 500 rooms. This includes Kanha in Madhya
Pradesh, Asanora in Goa, Naldhera in Himachal Pradesh and expansion at its Munnar
resort. Besides, the company is also considering land acquisition for two projects,
each of which shall add 200 rooms.
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 6,944 8,471 10,745
EBITDA 1,228 1,821 2,471
Margin (%) 17.7 21.5 23.0
PAT 908 1,291 1,675
EPS (Rs) 10.8 14.7 19.0
Growth (%) (11.2) 35.5 29.7
RoE (%) 15.4 18.2 19.3
PE (x) 22.7 16.7 12.9
P / BV (x) 3.3 2.7 2.3
EV / E (x) 17.3 10.8 7.6
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 1,572 1,469 7.0 1,874 8,471 6,944 22.0
EBITDA 160 170 (5.8) 381 1,821 1,228 48.3
Margin (%) 10.2 11.6 (140)bps 20.3 21.5 17.7 381 bps
Reported PAT 196 190 3.0 309 1,291 908 42.1
PAT (Excl . Ex Items ) 196 190 3.0 309 1,291 908 42.1
Operating Metrics
New Members Added 3,950 3,780 4.5 5,526 21,646 17,489 23.8
No Of Units 2,520 2,049 23.0 2,480 2,930 2,480 18.1
Occupancy (%) 89.0 89.0 0bps 82.0 80.0 81.0 (100)bps
MT Educare
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 99
Target Price (Rs) 130
M/Cap (Rs bn) 3.9
Shares o/s (m) 39.5
Key Figures (Rs m)
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 1,573 2,145 2,617
EBITDA 293 418 542
Margin (%) 18.6 19.5 20.7
PAT 180 245 319
EPS (Rs) 4.6 6.2 8.1
Growth (%) 21.3 35.8 30.3
RoE (%) 22.7 22.8 26.0
PE (x) 21.7 16.0 12.3
P / BV (x) 3.9 3.4 3.0
EV / E (x) 12.0 8.3 5.9
Q1 for the company is a weak quarter as the current year commerce and science
batches admissions do not start as yet and pick up pace in Q2 and Q3. Hence the
student base consists of IXth and Xth standard batches of the previous year and
current year as well as XIIth and test prep student of the science and commerce
division of the previous year. The higher CA students also do not form a part of the
student base this quarter. On account opf the low student base, besides revenues,
margin are also seasonally lower in Q1.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 472 369 28.0 351 2,145 1,573 36.4
EBITDA 58 43 34.2 41 418 293 42.6
Margin (%) 12.3 11.7 57 bps 11.6 19.5 18.6 85 bps
Reported PAT 34 25 38.8 17 245 180 35.8
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 34 25 38.8 17 245 180 35.8
Operating Metrics
No of students serviced
School 24,278 21,677 12.0 33,224 37,217 33,224 12.0
Science 8,407 7,006 20.0 13,511 19,281 13,511 42.7
Commerce 11,940 10,383 15.0 22,088 25,356 22,088 14.8
CPLC 2,150 NA NA 2,005 2,607 2,005 30.0
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