will government's massive surge in investment ... - Myiris.com

Apr-Jun 2013 Earnings Preview
Adani Ports & SEZ
Rating
BUY
Price (Rs) 149
Target Price (Rs) 180
M/Cap (Rs bn) 308.9
Shares o/s (m) 2,070.1
At Mundra, we expect flattish volumes on a sequential basis; however, 33% YoY
growth was led by coal, containers and crude. CT3 shall also start contributing from
this year onwards. The contribution from Dahej is expected to be steady, while
Hazira’a contribution to volumes is expected to scale-up. With the loss-making Abbot
Point divested, the profits on a consolidated basis are expected to look healthier
from the current quarter onwards.
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 35,766 45,867 55,910
EBITDA 23,835 31,999 38,228
Margin (%) 66.6 69.8 68.4
PAT 16,232 19,309 23,868
EPS (Rs) 8.1 9.3 11.5
Growth (%) 47.3 15.1 23.6
RoE (%) 28.9 25.4 24.6
PE (x) 18.4 16.0 12.9
P / BV (x) 4.7 3.5 2.9
EV / E (x) 17.3 13.3 10.0
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 9,829 10,334 (4.9) 10,355 45,867 35,766 28.2
EBITDA 6,782 8,005 (15.3) 6,310 31,999 23,835 34.3
Margin (%) 69.0 77.5 (846)bps 60.9 69.8 66.6 313 bps
Reported PAT 2,299 2,763 (16.8) 3,702 19,309 15,379 25.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 2,299 2,763 (16.8) 3,702 19,309 16,232 19.0
Operating Metrics
Rev/Tonne (Rs) 345 376 (8.3) 303 578 449 28.7
Port Vol. (m tonnes) 26.3 18.7 40.7 25.8 117.6 90.7 29.6
Gateway Distriparks
Rating
Accumulate
Price (Rs) 102
Target Price (Rs) 161
M/Cap (Rs bn) 11.0
Shares o/s (m) 108.5
Key Figures (Rs m) ‐ Consolidated
Y/e March FY13 FY14E FY15E
Net Sales 9,541 11,022 12,918
EBITDA 2,441 2,981 3,488
Margin (%) 25.6 27.0 27.0
PAT 1,267 1,565 1,839
EPS (Rs) 11.7 14.4 17.0
Growth (%) (4.3) 23.6 17.5
RoE (%) 16.5 18.9 19.9
PE (x) 8.7 7.0 6.0
P / BV (x) 1.4 1.3 1.1
EV / E (x) 6.2 5.2 4.2
CFS & Rail volumes in the first two months of the quarter were extremely subdued
and witnessed a slight pick-up in June. On account of the same, dwell time and
realizations for CFS are likely to be weak during the quarter. The big development
was on the cold chain size where Rs0.6bn was invested by Norwest Venture, giving
them a stake of 14% in Snowman. These funds will be used for Snowman for the
expansion of its capacities.
Quarterly Table (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q1
FY14E
Q1
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Q4
FY13
12M
FY14E
12M
FY13
YoY gr.
(%)
Net Sales 2,150 2,320 (7.3) 2,671 11,022 9,541 15.5
EBITDA 542 660 (17.9) 623 2,981 2,441 22.1
Margin (%) 25.2 28.4 (323)bps 23.3 27.0 25.6 146 bps
Reported PAT 238 352 (32.5) 336 1,565 1,267 23.6
PAT (Excl. Ex Items ) 238 352 (32.5) 336 1,565 1,267 23.6
Operating Metrics
CFS Volumes (TEUs ) 82,550 92,419 (10.7) 89,009 409,120 342,661 19.4
Revenue/TEU (Rs ) 8,560 8,722 (1.9) 8,793 8,558 8,765 (2.4)
Rail Business
Volumes (TEUs)
59,860 61,008
(1.9)
61,082 265,200 233,566 13.5
July 8, 2013 139