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LAT 54 60 2 72 7,60589 57,849563 0,857
LIT 42 55 2 70 7,185387 51,629787 0,769
ARM 37 45 5 68 6,4922398 42,149178 0,715
AZE 35 25 5 55 6,5930445 43,468236 0,696
BRU 54 15 4 68 7,9620673 63,394516 0,866
GEO 17 30 6 57 6,3630281 40,488127 0,709
KAZ 44 25 5 58 7,3524411 54,05839 0,798
KYR 43 40 5 39 6,7452363 45,498213 0,717
MOL 42 30 5 49 6,9660242 48,525493 0,755
RUS 49 55 3 75 7,7579062 60,185109 0,849
TAD 40 15 5 32 6,1527327 37,85612 0,643
TUR 63 15 6 45 7,237059 52,375023 0,731
UKR 43 35 3 69 7,7007478 59,301517 0,842
UZB 82 30 6 41 6,8772961 47,297201 0,706
privatization Pol Rights urbanization ln (GNP) ln(GNP)^2 HDI
The European Union at 50
Sources: Osteuropa-Institute Munich, Working Paper 186 (GDP growth,
privatization); Stiftung Entwicklung und Frieden (Political Rights Violations, based
on Freedom House); UNDP, 1995 (urbanization, Human Development Index);
Fischer Weltalmanach (GNP per capita)
The multiple regression results from the above Table are given in Table 6.2:
Table 7.7: The determinants of economic growth in the transformation countries
econ
growth
privatization Pol Rights urbanization ln (GNP) ln(GNP)^2 HDI Constant
-23,53855 -2,007199 51,691191 -1,265286 -2,739098 0,6255463 -132,3854
145,43797 10,124597 139,62757 0,4348674 5,155963 0,346291 514,0504
0,594606 16,348397
3,666841 15
5880,2214 4009,0513
t-test -0,161846 -0,19825 0,3702076 -2,90959 -0,531249 1,806418
Note: as in all EXCEL 5.0 outprints, first rows are unstandardized regression
coefficients, second rows are standard errors of the estimate, the third row
shows the value for R^2 of the whole equation and the standard deviation of the
estimate for y; the fourth row are the F-value and the degrees of freedom of the
whole equation; the fifth row shows the sum of squares of the regression and the
sum of square of the residuals. The sixth row is the t-test, calculated from row
(1) and (2)
59.5% of growth is explained by our equation. Thus, it emerges that the best
strategy to avoid stagnation is a policy of thorough-going reform that
assures a high human development index and a fair amount of political
and civil liberties. However, the region seems to be beset by an excessive
amount of egalitarianism that becomes a stumbling block against long-run
economic growth, when the share of the top income earners in total incomes falls
below 35%, when taxes - compared to development level - are very high, and
when the social services consume a percentage of total expenditures that is
comparable to the most advanced welfare states in the world. The share of the
Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar · CAEI Arno Tausch / 140