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The European Union at 50 Source: our own compilations, using a sinus function (1495 = 0; 1496 = 0,45; 1497 = 0,45 + 0,45 etc.) about war in the world system. The sinus function is the stylized function, based on Arrighi's reasoning about the four hegemonies in capitalist world society, connected with the ups and downs of war in global society (Genoa, the Netherlands, Britain, the United States, while the major power confrontations were Charles V Wars, the Thirty Years War, the French- British Conflict of the 18 th Century, Napoleonic Wars, Germany's Wars in the 20 th Century); the dotted lines are the fourth root of Goldstein's data series on major power battle fatalities; the trend line is a 10 years moving average of major power war fatality rates, calculated as before Each long Goldstein or Arrighi cycle of world politics could be characterized, according to Modelski, by a dominant world economic power and its challenger. Goldstein and Arrighi have very aptly described these world political cycles in great detail, so there is no need to repeat their reasoning here. The simple statistical evidence to support their theories on the basis of Goldstein's own original data is surprising, though. Our tests use very common software, available on millions of home micro-computers around the world (the EXCEL 5.0 program). The R^2 for the test series is between 31% and 91%; no transformation of the data was performed. The W-structure of conflict emerges neatly from all the tests. And each time, the challengers for world hegemony of a dominant sea-power were former members of the ruling coalition (France, Germany, Russia + China?), while the challengers in the world wars (Thirty Years War, Napoleonic Wars, German Wars of our century) always were continental powers (the Hapsburgs, France, Germany) (see also: Modelski, 1987; Goldstein, 1988, Arrighi, 1995). Thus, there is some support at least for the hypothesis about the sequence of world politics, leading from global wars to hegemonies, to the de-concentration of the international system, to the de-legitimization of international leadership, and finally, to new global wars. Ever since the days of Schumpeter, economists and sociologists were inclined to see also more short-term cycles at work, namely the Kitchin cycles, lasting three and a half years, the Jugar cycles lasting 8-10 years, and the Kuznets cycles between 18 and 25 years. The intense controversy about cycles should only be mentioned briefly here; for the policy-maker perhaps more important is the fact that after the economic crisis of 1825, the stock exchange collapse of 1873, the Black Friday of 1929 and the world recession starting in 1973/75, world capitalism has experienced quite severe downswing-phases that hit with elementary weight especially the countries of the periphery and the semiperiphery. The Kondratieff cycles of approximately 50 years duration and the Kuznets cycles, 20 years long, are especially relevant for our understanding of the ups and downs of world economics and politics: our data series, constructed from Goldstein's original data, is explained quite markedly by the application of the Kondratieff and Kuznets-cycle hypotheses, even when there are now data filtering or smoothening operations being performed: Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar · CAEI Arno Tausch / 43
Graph 3.3: Kuznets-cycles in the world system, 1756 - 1975 The European Union at 50 Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar · CAEI Arno Tausch / 44
Page 1 and 2: Arno Tausch The European Union at 5
Page 3 and 4: Arno Tausch The European Union at 5
Page 5 and 6: The European Union at 50 Title pict
Page 7 and 8: Abstract The European Union at 50 O
Page 9 and 10: The European Union at 50 'For upwar
Page 11 and 12: List of abbreviations (functional t
Page 13 and 14: 1) Introduction The European Union
Page 15 and 16: The European Union at 50 b) do thes
Page 17 and 18: The European Union at 50 nothing bu
Page 19 and 20: The European Union at 50 scientists
Page 21 and 22: Camorra Ndrangheta Sacra Corona Uni
Page 23 and 24: Nigeria 5 6,975 Bangladesh 199 10,9
Page 25 and 26: Greece: civil rights 3 Great Britai
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Page 29 and 30: The European Union at 50 2) The the
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Page 35 and 36: The European Union at 50 In interna
Page 37 and 38: The European Union at 50 the USA ar
Page 39 and 40: The European Union at 50 3) The int
Page 41 and 42: 1960-75 r = - .07 1974-77 r = - .72
Page 43 and 44: The European Union at 50 From Golds
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Page 49 and 50: The European Union at 50 Entelequia
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Page 57 and 58: The European Union at 50 It should
Page 59 and 60: The European Union at 50 oil equiva
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Page 65 and 66: Belgium 33% - 4.2% Austria 33% - 0.
Page 67 and 68: Africa 5.8% 14.6% Latin America 6.5
Page 69 and 70: The European Union at 50 trade-offs
Page 71 and 72: 45,758 111 1,6927 0,3733 Gender Emp
Page 73 and 74: The European Union at 50 Note: as i
Page 75 and 76: MNCP85 Govex Trade Dep social sec U
Page 77 and 78: 66,116 116 9953,2 2910,5 1,0862 0,5
Page 79 and 80: t-Test 2,53674 -1,54547 -2,09879 2,
Page 81 and 82: The European Union at 50 Our analys
Page 83 and 84: The European Union at 50 5) Problem
Page 85 and 86: The European Union at 50 100 ppm CO
Page 87 and 88: The European Union at 50 Table 5.1:
Page 89 and 90: The European Union at 50 Faced by t
Page 91 and 92: CND 0.685 USA 0.645 Japan 0.445 NL
Page 93 and 94: The European Union at 50 Nationalis
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pol rights MNC Trade Govex PEN73 De
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18940 41610 t-Test -3,043 - 1,303 -
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The European Union at 50 according
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The European Union at 50 pushed upw
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The European Union at 50 To make pe
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The European Union at 50 the 1920s,
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The European Union at 50 This yield
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The European Union at 50 7) Problem
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The European Union at 50 statistica
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The European Union at 50 present tr
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DK 19080 17,4 0,92 8299,8 7011,5304
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The European Union at 50 real incom
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The European Union at 50 that the l
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The European Union at 50 'One might
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A Polish case study The European Un
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Graph 7.4: unemployment in Poland -
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The European Union at 50 the variab
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The European Union at 50 KPN, and S
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patriarchical structures real GDP h
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The European Union at 50 Eastern se
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social process cycle 1835/42-83 bas
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Table 9.7: hegemonic cycles in the
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Reform Repression 1985 'Gorbi' 192
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LAT 54 60 2 72 7,60589 57,849563 0,
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Hungary 36.6% 15% - - Slovenia 37.9
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The European Union at 50 Czech R 0,
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0,025122747 0,324494352 0,002916141
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The European Union at 50 Legend: UN
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9 8,4 56 6 GEO 4,4 0,3 14 5,9 KAZ 5
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Slovak R 5,8 37 3 4 Latvia 14,8 -4,
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The European Union at 50 8) Problem
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The European Union at 50 independen
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The European Union at 50 Graph 8.4:
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terms of trade 90 98 99 100 current
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The European Union at 50 The empiri
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NAFTA (USA, Canada, Mexico) The Eur
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The European Union at 50 exports an
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human development index (UNDP) infl
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The European Union at 50 Human deve
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The European Union at 50 the Europe
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The European Union at 50 European s
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Eastern Europe and Central Asia +18
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The European Union at 50 Table 10.4
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The European Union at 50 the increa
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The European Union at 50 Map 10.1 (
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The European Union at 50 reconcile
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The European Union at 50 Table 10.3
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Gini 30 - 39.9 Philippines, Zambia,
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Map 10.5: female survival probabili
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Map 10.6: male survival probability
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The European Union at 50 Mediterran
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Map 10.7. (continued): quintile rat
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The European Union at 50 Eurostat d
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The European Union at 50 Map 10.8:
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Table 10.8: poverty in Europe (EU-1
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The European Union at 50 These diff
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Map 10.14:Unemployment rates The Eu
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Samples and data List of variables
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The European Union at 50 greenhouse
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Data about the position of societie
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The European Union at 50 Norw 1,615
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The European Union at 50 20 7,03262
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The European Union at 50 Mald 15,6
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The European Union at 50 Braz 6,3 0
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Hong 41,6 18 Urug 23,7 24,8 Trinid
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UK 44,2 35,6 Ger 16,5 30,4 DK 24,9
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Burun 1,3 0 CAfricR -1,5 0,13 Mozam
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Colombia 49,5 1,5 21,9 6,4 1945 Tha
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ITA 0 0,4 7,5 53 GRE 0 0,7 7 43 ISR
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Chad 0 2,1 0,3 32 Burundi 0 2,2 0,4
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Indonesia 44 55 14 19 2,89 Guyana 4
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0,645 10,3 5 5 GEO 0,633 1,3 2 4 AL
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GDP (UNDP, 1996) Canada 1,9 1,7 0 U
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Ghana 6 0,9 0 Lesotho 5,2 3,2 0 Equ
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The European Union at 50 Bergesen A
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The European Union at 50 Elsenhans
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The European Union at 50 Kay C. (19
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The European Union at 50 Pollack M.
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The European Union at 50 Tausch A.
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The European Union at 50 World Econ
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The European Union at 50 Heidenreic
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The European Union at 50 Yotopoulos
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You are free: Attribution-NonCommer
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