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The European Union at 50
The empirical results show the alarming and significant effects of years of
European membership on growth, inflation, human development and
unemployment. Results, which are significant at the level of 10% (one-tailed ttest),
are printed in bold type. The reform needs of the Union are omnipresent in
the light of these politometric results for the 1980s and beyond. Each important
economic performance indicator, growth, inflation, human development and
unemployment, is influenced in a fatal and significant way by years of
membership in the European Union. The longer you stay inside, the more rentseeking,
stagnant, inflation and unemployment-prone and the more lacking in
terms of human development your economy and society could become in
comparison to the other Western democracies:
(7.2) Growth, inflation, human development and unemployment. The effects of years of European Union membership, age of
democracy and central government expenditures
Dependent variable
Independent Variable growth inflation HDI unemployment
years of European -0.022 +0.68 -0.00 +0.16
Union membership (1.55) (1.59) (2.25) (1.91)
age of democracy -0.013 -0.22 +0.00 +0.06
(2.20) (1.25) (0.18) (1.69)
central government +0.003 -0.68 +0.00 +0.03
expenditures (0.35) (2.20) (0.13) (0.53)
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constant 3.29 2.53 0.94 -0.52
statistical
indicators
R^2 29.4% 27.5% 30.9% 29.3%
F 2.22 2.03 2.39 2.21
df. 16 16 16 16
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df. = 16; p < .05 = 1.746; p < .10 = 1.337. Significant coefficients at the 5% level are printed in bold type; significant
coefficients at the 10% level are printed in bold indented type. Cells in parenthesis are t-values. UNDP data 1994
Government expenditures lose their significant negative effect on development
indicators, once we introduce years of European Union membership into the
equations. Years of Union membership significantly affect all four vital
development indicators in a clear-cut and detrimental way. They decrease
growth, human development, and they increase inflation and unemployment.
The basic reason for such unpleasant results is the emergency support
philosophy of the Commission that strengthens Euro-wide a rent-seeking
mentality. The most important reason, why the North America-Pacific triangle is
gaining ground in the world market is the pattern of specialization based on co-
Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar · CAEI Arno Tausch / 162