ABSTRACTS 'Extreme Discharges' - CHR-KHR

Meuse. The areas where these calculations are currently possible are also more than 90% of the actual project
area of Room for the River and all of the project area for the Meuse Works. In the delta’s it is only possible to
evaluate the influence of climate change on dike heights in the 2001 situation and to evaluate the influence of
climate change and the project proposal on design water levels in the situation in 2015. New water level data for
the situation after completion of the project proposal for the Room for the River project have to be generated
first. There is no technical problem, to carry this out.
Examples of climate change are shown individually: sea level rise, a change in the design discharge and changes
in wind speeds at design conditions. For the Rhine Branches and Meuse, the situation of design water levels and
the probability of dike failure for a number of dike rings in 2001 will be shown as a reference. Then for the Rhine
Branches the influence of a slight change in the design discharge, wind speeds at design conditions is illustrated
together with the effects of the Room for Rivers program. Differences of design water levels and the
probability of dike failure are shown for a number of scenario’s.
The 2001 situation will be compared to the situation in 2015 after completion of the Room for the River project,
with and without climate change on the Rhine Branches. On the Meuse the 2001 situation will be compared to
the situation in 2015 after completion of the Meuse Works and Room for the River project, with and without
climate change. In the Meuse Works two retention reservoir areas are part of the project proposal. The effect of
the retention area, Lob van Gennep will also be evaluated separately.
There are more than 25 dike rings in the project area for the Room for the River project and 40 for the Meuse
Works project. Information to evaluate dike sections has been generated every 100 meters, so in total there are
more than 10 000 dike sections. For the situation in 2001 and the situation in 2015 all dike sections will evaluated.
To demonstrate the influence of climate change a selection shall be made, to illustrate that the Hydramodels
really work. So elaborate results for only two dike rings shall be shown per project.
Conclusions, which can be drawn at the moment on the basis of current calculations:
After completion of the Room for the River project in 2015 10 % of dikes still have to be reinforced to meet the
minimum safety levels. If climate change is taken into account a lot more has to be done in the near future especially
if no flooding occurs along the Rhine in Germany.
For the Meuse one can conclude that on the basis of the current project proposal, one of the project objectives,
no rise in design water levels in the downstream areas will not be met. Additional measures in the Meuse Works
project will have to be taken.
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