ABSTRACTS 'Extreme Discharges' - CHR-KHR

Mutlivariate statistical analysis of flood generation in the
Meuse catchment
Paul Torfs
Wageningen University, Water Resources Department
Nieuwe Kanaal 11, NL 6709 PA Wageningen, the Netherlands
paul.torfs@wur.nl
Within the framework of a larger program, a hydrological model of the whole Meuse catchment was made by
RIZA, the ministry responsible for the flood prediction and management in the Netherlands. This model is
based build on the well known HSB model, and is semi-distributied. The KNMI, the meteorlogical institute of
the Netherlands, has made by statistitical long artificial series of rainfall series as input for this model. A combination
of both generates artificial but unusual long statitistical stationary series of discharges.
The research focused on the spatial analysis of these series for extremes.
Entropy was used as a method to analyse uniformity. Large extremes proved to be consistently uniform distributed,
both in space and time.
Next a multivariate statisitical analysis of extremes was tried. Classical univariate analysis results in discharges
and return periods for each of the subcatchments seperately. Bivariate analysis is more complicated, but results
in insight in the statistical dependency of these extremes. Nearby catchments proved to be significantly stronger
dependend than combinations of catchents further seperated.
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