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284 AUSTRALIAN MARITIME ISSUES 2006: SPC-A ANNUAL
Foreknowledge
As applied to sea control, sea denial and power projection
The need to ‘know your enemy’ and the resulting requirement for good intelligence
are central components of The Art of War. The advantage of good maritime intelligence
was shown by such Allied victories of World War II at Midway and in the Atlantic
U‐boat campaign. 62 Gray argues the US agrees with Sun Tzu today on the primacy of
‘information’, 63 and this is obvious in the numerous information warfare strategies
and theories developed in the last decade utilising new sensor and communication
technology, with Australia’s Network Centric Warfare concept being just one example. 64
Due to the unpredictable and complex warfighting environment of the littoral, it will
require great foreknowledge to successfully conduct an indirect approach by power
projection.
Gray provides an interesting counterpoint in that the fog of war will prevent
information dominance. 65 As Donald Rumsfeld has mused on intelligence: ‘But there
are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know about.’ 66 Once involved in the
complex multidimensional littoral, the possibility of having full intelligence reduces
significantly, particularly if fighting in urban environments, as has been shown in Iraq.
Although a worthy aim, it can be argued that too much reliance on foreknowledge may
prove misplaced, and imperil complex and ambitious plans.
As has been shown, the three principles selected from The Art of War for comparison
so far are relevant to the military component of contemporary maritime strategy. The
fourth, avoiding conflict, is particularly useful for the next two components of maritime
strategy, constabulary operations and politico-military operations.
The Art of War and Constabulary Operations
The constabulary component of maritime strategy, also known as ‘good order at sea’, 67
is simply the manner in which maritime forces may be used to protect the non-warlike
uses of the sea. This includes protection of living and non-living offshore resources,
ports, sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and maritime borders. 68 All of these ocean
uses are valuable and so are good indirect targets for opponents, from such threats
as illegal fishing, piracy and terrorism. 69 The economic importance of many ocean
resources, particularly oil and gas, makes constabulary operations important, although
Till reminds us that sea control is still critical to conduct any of these other roles. 70 The
Art of War stratagems of Avoiding Conflict and Avoiding Strength should be useful in
conducting and attacking constabulary operations.