turkmen in iraq and their flight - orsam

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ORSAM Report No: 87 CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EASTERN TURKMEN STUDIES Report No: 16, November 2011 By Dr. İbrahim Sirkeci Reader in Demography and Marketing Regent's College, London, UK ORSAM-ORTADOĞU TÜRKMENLERİ ARAŞTIRMALARI MERKEZİ ORSAM ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ TURKMEN IN IRAQ AND THEIR FLIGHT: A DEMOGRAPHIC QUESTION Executive Summary Ethnic and religious conflicts, power struggles and wars have determined and shaped the fate of contemporary Iraq throughout the second half of the last century and into the new millennium. These conflicts have largely prevented the collection of data and therefore healthy analysis of the country’s demography for a long while. The demographic engineering took place during the Baath regime and perhaps still in progress in the country is one key reason why the international community as well as Iraqis themselves do not know for sure what the country is made of, ethnically and religiously. Therefore all studies and reports on Iraq are based on partial data which can be controversial as there is practically no reliable population frame from which anybody can draw representative samples or test the representativeness. The two surveys forming the basis of this book/report are also not free from that potential fallacy. However, given the paucity of data and analysis from war torn Iraq, every little research helps a great deal to understand population dynamics in the country and possibly inform the national and international policy choices. The two international migration surveys were conducted in Iraq and Turkey respectively. The one conducted in Iraq targeted Iraqi Turkmen households in major cities and towns in the North and Bagdad. The chosen areas where sizeable Turkmen populations exist were surveyed by a random sampling method employed in the field. Although 1500 households were aimed to reach, our field teams were only able to complete questionnaires in a total of 1040 households. About one third of the households were identified as migrant households where at least a member of the household is a migrant or was once a migrant. This is a far higher figure than in many traditional migrant sending countries. The second survey was carried out almost simultaneously in major cities in Turkey, again by considering where large Turkmen immigrant communities exist. A total of 161 questionnaires were completed most of whom were randomly selected from Iraqi Turkmen Front registers while convenience sampling was used to reach respondents in Istanbul. In line with my conflict model of migration, Iraqi Turkmen migration is following a pattern that corresponds to lows and peaks of various conflicts and degree of intensity of conflict in Iraq over the time. Turkmen’s perception of relative security in Turkey and other destination countries in comparison to relative insecurity in Iraq is the key driver in their international migration experiences. Apparently background variables such as age, gender, income, education and employment are all playing their part in the decision making. Nevertheless, the wars Iraqis have faced and suffered from during the last two or three decades drew the line between moving and not moving as well as deciding when to move. The largest portion of outmigration took place after 1990. 9
ORSAM-CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EASTERN TURKMEN STUDIES It was found that Turkmen is a well-educated population with a high tendency to move abroad, particularly to Turkey due to historical and cultural ties. Possibly in response to the tightening immigration admission regimes across the board, as many as 50 per cent of all Turkmen migrants crossed borders without necessary papers or overstayed their permits and visas. This study presents a story of an unsettled minority population in Iraq and indicates high emigration pressures felt by Turkmen. Given the current uncertainty prevailing in Iraq, one would expect many more have left since our fieldwork and many more are likely to flee their homes in the future unless a multi-ethnic peace is secured in the country. Introduction: The Turkmen Question in Iraq Immediately after the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, as an international migration researcher, I was concerned about the potential repercussions of this military move for international migration in Iraq. The available data from international organisations were already showing that the First Gulf War had caused a shift in Iraq’s migration profile: the country had switched from a country of immigration hosting millions of contract workers and refugees into a country of emigration seeing many of its citizens fleeing. In an earlier study, I have documented emigration trends from Iraq 1 and presented it with an environment of insecurity perspective which was developed to explain ethnic tensions initially and later was developed to be applied in international migration cases 2 . The 2003 invasion did not help much to alleviate the environment of insecurity which is a key driver for emigration from Iraq. Since the invasion living conditions in Iraq are severed and millions of Iraqis are internally and internationally displaced. In this book, I am discussing the international side of this displacement with a particular focus on the experiences of Turkmen population. Insecurity in Iraq and securitisation of migration discourse in general are two faces of today’s international migration from Iraq. A sizeable population of Iraqis left Iraq for European destinations and many settled in or still waiting in limbo (i.e. asylum seekers and undocumented migrants). Given the tightening admission rules and European obsession with immigration control, we can predict many Iraqis to be among illegal migrants as well as many among those who lost their lives in attempting crossing in the European borderlands. These borderland casualties should be seen as another aspect of human insecurity for Iraqis who happened to be destined to Europe for security. During the 1990s and early 2000s, Iraqi emigration was more of a steady flow of people avoiding the dangers of a shattering country. With the 2003 invasion, we have seen mass influxes into neighbouring countries, flight of huge number of Iraqis. Middle East was not strange to any such mass movements. Saddam Hussein’s attack on Kurds had killed thousands and forced hundreds of thousands to flee into neighbouring Turkey. Starting from 1948 War resulting in the displacement of 700,000 Palestinians 3 , till the summer 2006 Israeli attack on Lebanon, the region saw millions of people displaced and many left uprooted for decades (e.g. Palestinians in Syria and Jordan). The first Gulf War had forced about 2 million immigrants to leave Iraq 4 . Alongside immigrants, many Iraqis also fled the country at the time. Today, estimates tally that over 4.5 million Iraqis are displaced within and outside Iraq as a result of the 2003 invasion and violence in the aftermath. Turkmen in Iraq also had their share in these mass displacements. Iraq, similar to other nations in the Middle 10 www.orsam.org.tr
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