turkmen in iraq and their flight - orsam

ORSAM-CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EASTERN TURKMEN STUDIES
Many Turkmen moved into neighbouring
countries resembling to sudden refugee flows
witnessed in the region and elsewhere. Perhaps
due to such forced migration nature, they had
to resort to illegal migration.
Supporting my argument about conflict and
migration, an analysis of the years of emigration
shows that most Turkmen (80%) moved
abroad after 1990 and peaks in the migration
flows roughly corresponds to the peaks in the
conflict. Understanding Turkmen diaspora and
knowing their size and locations are important
in reconstruction of Iraq as these people are
likely to be still interested in the future of their
home country.
Turkmen are very interested in Turkey; they
follow Turkish media, some even feel they belong
to Turkey instead of Iraq. Turkmen’s interest
and expectations from Turkey should be
given serious thought. As the main destination,
Turkey is likely to attract many more Turkmen
immigrants. However, neither total Turkmen
population nor total numbers in diaspora are
known.
Religious divisions in Iraq appear to be central
in the reconstruction process. Religious
composition of Turkmen population is very
unlikely to be unique in Iraq. Similar to other
ethnic groups in the country (i.e. Arabs, Kurds,
etc.), Iraqi Turkmen population is also composed
of religious groups including Sunni, Shiite
and Alevi Muslims.This proves that approaches
suggesting solutions based on religious representation
are not fully compatible with the population
structure of Iraq. Iraq is not composed
of Sunni and Shiite and Kurds but the reality
is much more complicated. There is a need
for further studies on ethnic diversity in Iraq
as well as significant efforts are required from
the governing bodies to address the need for a
fair census in the country to reduce tensions
among various ethnic groups in Iraq.
Deprivation and inter-ethnic tensions in Iraq
have set the agenda for a while and this will
remain as it is. Overall poverty, persistent violence,
killings, and political dissatisfied groups
in Iraq will continue to be the main corner
stones of environment of human insecurity
in the country. Changes in US policy towards
Iraq and possible withdrawal of troops after the
next year’s presidential elections will have an
effect, yet to be seen. However, currently, one
in ten Iraqis has already fled the country and
another one in ten has been displaced within
the country. Hence, emigration will remain as
one of the strategic options for many Iraqis; disadvantaged
ethnic groups and those suffering
from violence will be more likely to emigrate;
and European countries (including Turkey and
via Turkey) will be the most preferred destinations.
For the European neighbourhood, the implication
is very clear. The established Iraqi immigrant
population in Europe (estimated to
be around half a million) are likely to facilitate
migration of many more Iraqis. Historically,
Germany, the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands
and Denmark have been top destinations for
Iraqi migrants and there is no reason to believe
that this will change. More recently, Greece
has become a favourable destination for Iraqi
migrants likely because of its relative geographic
proximity to Iraq. Turkey, a prospective European
Union member state sharing borders
with Iraq and Syria, is a prime destination because
of geographic proximity. Moreover, due
to cultural proximity, Turkey is likely to be a
major destination for Iraqi Turkmen migrants.
All of these countries have been among the top
five destinations for Iraqi asylum seekers since
the 1980s. One should also note that the US,
Canada and Australia have been immigration
destinations for a significant number of Iraqis,
but the long distance and these countries’ tight
admission restrictions may deter many in the
future.
The environment of human insecurity in Iraq
is characterised by economic deprivation me-
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