turkmen in iraq and their flight - orsam

TURKMEN IN IRAQ AND THEIR FLIGHT: A DEMOCRAPHIC QUESTION
Figure 5: Top 10 OECD Countries with the Largest Iraqi Immigrant Populations
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
circa 2000
2006 estimates
United
States
Sweden
Germany
Netherlands
United
Kingdom
Canada
Australia
Denmark
Norway
Turkey
Source: OECD, MPI, Author’s Own Estimations.
ted industrialised countries can help us to anticipate
future migration flows. Also once can
roughly estimate the current stock of Iraqi immigrants.
For example, in Sweden, the number
of Iraqi immigrants increased from less than
30,000 in 1996 to above 72,000 in 2006. In other
countries, we can expect similar increases
due to further outflows in response to increasing
violence and death toll after 2003, and particularly
after 2006, a year which saw the number
of inter-ethnic attacks, including mosque
bombings and suicide attacks have increased
dramatically.
Based on Iraqi immigration flow statistics available
from OECD reports and Migration Policy
Institute data, the total immigrant population
in industrialised countries probably reached
about half a million by now. However, even this
can be an underestimation of the total number
of Iraqi immigrants because there is no comprehensive
data on naturalisation and undocumented
immigrants. International Organisation
for Migration estimates that 1,270,000
people have been displaced in Iraq in the two
years of escalating sectarian violence since the
February 2006 bombing of the Samarra Al-
Askari Mosque, which is believed to have escalated
sectarian violence in Iraq 74 . Due to difficulties
in crossing borders and making arrangements
for long-distance regular migrations,
one should not expect similarly large numbers
of Iraqi immigrants to arrive in industrialised
countries anytime soon; however, an increase
is likely in the long run, similar to the pattern
that was seen in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf
War. 75
Iraqi Asylum Seekers
Iraqi international migration seems to be dominated
by refugee and asylum seeker flows.
In 2001, UNHCR reported that 530,000 of 12
million refugees in the world were from Iraq.
The number of Iraqi refugees was 1,343,800 in
1992, steadily decreasing to about 700,000 in
the mid-1990s, further decreasing in the mid-
2000s.
Table 2 and figure 6 display the number of Iraqi
asylum seekers in developed countries during
the period from 1980 to 2009, and clearly shows
that the rises in conflict [or increasing environment
of insecurity] resulted in sharp increases
in asylum seeker flows. Sweden, Germany, the
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