Quarterly Bulletin Q3 2013

6
Forecast Summary Table
2010 2011 2012 2013 f 2014 f
Real Economic Activity
(% change)
Personal consumer expenditure 0.9 -1.6 -0.3 -0.5 0.4
Public consumption -6.9 -2.8 -3.7 -1.5 -2.8
Gross fixed capital formation -22.6 -9.5 -1.0 4.1 6.6
of which: Building and construction -30 -12.2 -4.1 4.2 7.2
Machinery and equipment -9.4 -1.0 2.6 4.0 6.0
Exports of goods and services 6.4 5.4 1.6 1.0 4.2
Imports of goods and services 3.6 -0.4 0.0 0.7 3.2
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -1.1 2.2 0.2 0.7 2.1
Gross National Product (GNP) 0.5 -1.6 1.8 0.3 1.3
External Trade and Payments
Balance-of-Payments Current Account (€ million) 1,782 2,002 7,250 7,406 8,743
Current Account (% of GDP) 1.1 1.2 4.4 4.4 5.1
Prices, Costs and Competitiveness
(% change)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) -1.6 1.1 2.0 0.8 1.1
of which: Goods -2.4 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.4
Services -0.7 0.8 1.9 1.6 1.7
HICP excluding energy -2.7 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.4
Consumer Price Index (CPI) -1.0 2.6 1.7 0.9 1.0
Nominal Harmonised Competitiveness Indicator
-4.2 0.8 -4.0 n.a. n.a.
(Nominal HCI) a
Compensation per Employee -3.8 -0.1 0.8 1.5 1.2
Labour Market
(% change year-on-year)
Total employment -4.0 -1.8 -0.6 0.7 0.8
Labour force -2.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.3
Unemployment rate (ILO) 13.9 14.6 14.6 13.7 13.2
Technical Assumptions b
(Annual average)
EUR/USD exchange rate 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.31 1.31
EUR/GBP exchange rate 0.86 0.87 0.81 0.85 0.85
Oil price ($ per barrel) 79.61 111.26 111.74 101.78 98.62
Interbank market – Euribor c (3-month fixed) 0.81 1.39 0.57 0.24 0.49
a Based upon the annual change in the average nominal HCI.
b The technical assumption made is that exchange rates remain unchanged at their average levels in late June 2013. Oil prices and
interest rates are assumed to move in line with the futures market.
c Euribor is the rate at which euro interbank term deposits are offered by one prime bank to another, within the euro area. Daily data
from 30 December 1998 are available from www.euribor.org.