2014-04-22 - Socio Economic Review 2014 - Full text and cover - FINAL

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Table 2.2 – Total Cost of Irish Banking Rescue by Source of Funding and Year (€bn) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total NPRF 7 3.7 10 20.7 Promissory Notes 30.7 30.7 Exchequer 4 0.9 6.5 1.3 12.7 Total 11 35.3 16.5 1.3 64 Source: http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2012/04/18/00157.asp; Healy (2013). Though the Irish state had raised significant cash reserves, in September and November 2010 European leaders placed considerable pressure on Irish leaders to be placed in an IMF/EU programme. European policymakers feared that high bond yields on Irish government debt would have a contagion effect on other vulnerable Euro area economies. Ireland’s IMF/EU programme required fiscal consolidation to bring the general government deficit (GGD) to GDP ratio below the 3% prescribed in the Growth and Stability Pact by 2015, and a considerable recapitalisation and downsizing of the Irish banking sector. This has brought the total adjustment between 2008 and 2015 to €32.3bn, equivalent to 18% of 2015 forecasted GDP (see Table 2.3). In addition, a structural adjustment programme comprising reforms to social security and the labour market, and privatisation of public utilities, was agreed as part of the programme. Table 2.3 - Budgetary Adjustments 2008-2015 (€m) Adjustment Description Taxation Expenditure Total Running Total Adjustment July 2008 €1,000 €1,000 €1,000 Budget 2009 €1,215 €747 €1,962 €2,962 Adjustments Feb/March 2009 €2,090 €2,090 €5,052 Supplementary Budget 2009 €3,621 €1,941 €5,562 €10,614 Budget 2010 €23 €4,051 €4,074 €14,688 Budget 2011 €1,409 €4,590 €5,999 €20,687 Budget 2012 €1,600 €2,200 €3,800 €24,487 Budget 2013 €1,432 €1,940 €3,372 €27,859 Budget 2014 €880 €2,000 €2,480 €30,339 Budget 2015* €700 €1,300 €2,000 €32,339 Total of Adjustments €10,880 €21,459 % Division of Adjustments 33.6% 66.4% Notes: *Projected 2. From Crisis to Viable Future Pathway 29
2.1.3 The Troika programme, 2010-2013 The Troika Programme – a financing package of €85bn, of which €67.5bn was provided by the EU, IMF, Sweden, Denmark, Britain and €22.5bn by the Irish National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) and Irish Exchequer cash balances - was designed to return Ireland to market funding by December 2013, through a radical reorganisation and downsizing of the Irish banking sector – correctly viewed as the source of Ireland’s crisis – and a reduction of Ireland’s deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2015. Though the IMF and Irish authorities belatedly recognised the damage caused by the policy of austerity, the dominant belief was that a rapid fiscal consolidation would increase confidence in Irish government debt, facilitating Ireland’s ability to return to self-financing. Relatively short shrift was given to the idea of pushing out the period of adjustment, which would have reduced the impact on the Irish economy and society. Indeed, the former IMF mission chief to Ireland has argued that a less sharp fiscal contraction combined with a write-down of banking debt was not just possible, but desirable (The Irish Times, 2013). Table 2.4 – Components of changes in Real GDP, 2008-2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real gDp -2.2 -6.4 -1.1 2.2 0.2 0.6 1.8 Final Domestic Demand -2.2 -9.7 5 -3 -1.1 0 0.3 -private Consumption 0.1 -5.1 0.9 -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.5 -public Consumption 0.6 -3.4 -6.9 -2.8 -3.7 -0.6 -2.8 -gross fixed investment -9.6 -26.9 -22.6 -9.5 -0.1 2 4 Net Exports 1.5 4.6 3 5.7 1.6 0.6 1.5 -Exports -1.1 -3.8 6.4 5.4 1.6 1.1 2.9 -Imports -3 -9.8 3.6 -0.4 0 0.6 1.9 Source: International Monetary Fund (2013: 34) The initial assumptions of Ireland’s economic performance under the EU/Programme were extremely optimistic – even in the IMF’s programme assumptions - particularly in relation to domestic demand (see Table 2.5). This was reflected in the greater confidence in the policy of austerity, particularly in the European institutions. However, as a result of weaker growth the nominal amount of cuts required to achieve the deficit targets under the Programme were correspondingly higher. As with other EU/IMF programmes, the Troika did not adopt a uniform perspective on Ireland’s economy. The IMF were more worried 30 Socio-Economic Review 2014
Page 1 and 2: S O C I O - E C O N O M I C R E V I
Page 4 and 5: S O C I O - E C O N O M I C R E V I
Page 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 7
Page 9 and 10: There are four key steps for such a
Page 11 and 12: • The first is macroeconomic stab
Page 13 and 14: In this chapter we will chart the b
Page 15 and 16: (O’Connor et. al., 2012: 69). The
Page 17 and 18: What are the reasons for the emerge
Page 19 and 20: produce greater and more lasting pr
Page 21 and 22: esembles the German tradition of or
Page 23 and 24: market, became the first country to
Page 25 and 26: the European Stability Mechanism (E
Page 27 and 28: Chart 2.11 Comparison of 10-year Go
Page 29: pressing concerns surrounding the l
Page 33 and 34: Table 2.6 - Poverty and Deprivation
Page 35 and 36: a reduction in total expenditure (i
Page 37 and 38: Table 2.7 - A policy framework for
Page 39 and 40: Chart 2.13 - Maturity Dates of Iris
Page 41 and 42: These figures are from an extremely
Page 43 and 44: A key part of Ireland’s industria
Page 45 and 46: Employment has finally begun to ris
Page 47 and 48: is becoming ever more urgent for Ir
Page 49 and 50: c) New Indicators Creating a sustai
Page 51 and 52: analysed in this section, indicates
Page 53 and 54: weekly income level will be counted
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.3: The numbers of people be
Page 57 and 58: Table 3.5 looks at adults only and
Page 59 and 60: This reflected the rise in unemploy
Page 61 and 62: 2001. These are the years that the
Page 63 and 64: Table 3.11: Levels of deprivation f
Page 65 and 66: Moving to persistent poverty Social
Page 67 and 68: Chart 3.1: Percentage difference in
Page 69 and 70: the years to come (Mallon and Healy
Page 71 and 72: Chart 3.3: Ireland’s Income Distr
Page 73 and 74: Table 3.15: The distribution of hou
Page 75 and 76: Table 3.17: Gini coefficient measur
Page 77 and 78: Individualising social welfare paym
Page 79 and 80: for every euro earned the person wi
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• Provide substantial new measure
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Table 4.1: The changing nature of I
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Looking to the years immediately ah
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may be some return from a number of
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Taxation and competitiveness Anothe
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Reforming and broadening the tax ba
Page 93 and 94:
Analysis of High Income Individuals
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with little benefit in terms of job
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Results from Census 2011 indicated
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• The major components of these a
Page 101 and 102:
Standard rating discretionary tax e
Page 103 and 104:
Although all of the income taxation
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demonstrates the equity attached to
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• Would incentivise employment ov
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this complexity vary but they are f
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S O C I O - E C O N O M I C R E V I
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This transformation in the labour m
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Table 5.3: Unemployment in Ireland,
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Previous experiences, in Ireland an
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The Live Register While the live re
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Even the most optimistic economic a
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The need to recognise voluntary wor
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- Ensure that the social welfare sy
Page 127 and 128:
increasing taxation in Ireland has
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library services Libraries play an
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cent in households in the bottom 20
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the supply of these services. Socia
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Sports A report carried out by Inde
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developments. Complex regulation al
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Housing: a New philosophy Given the
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subsequent failure to implement a s
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Table 7.2- Population and housing s
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Social Justice Ireland believes tha
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or green areas and are located a go
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Table 7.5 - Mortgage Arrears Jun-12
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country. The most recent assessment
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(25 per cent) of households, with t
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Table 7.8 Percentage distribution o
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esulting in this mechanism becoming
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2013 nearly 2000 units were leased
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Social Justice Ireland has also pre
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Housing and children Factors which
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• Government should also meet com
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poverty and Health Health is not ju
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life expectancy According to Eurost
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Health stating that it will not be
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Table 8.2 - EU 27 Expenditure on He
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Figure 8.1 - Expenditure on health
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older people’s services Although
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people in their own homes/communiti
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Children and family services There
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catchment areas and community menta
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The sustained high level of suicide
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• Continue to facilitate and fund
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Education in Ireland - the numbers
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with significant increases projecte
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for both individuals and the state
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cause of considerable concern for p
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Department has transferred responsi
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minimum of 30 per cent of all enrol
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costs, repaying such borrowing when
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communities. Census 2011 showed tha
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Refugees and Asylum Seekers Until r
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Social Justice Ireland proposes tha
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This emigration ‘brain drain’,
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Backbenchers have little control ov
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economic, social and community deve
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over many years by Government. In r
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seen as the key to resolving many a
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Ireland. The common good must be at
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downplay as externalities. Shadow n
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All areas of governance, from inter
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the failure by governments to imple
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natural resources is required to en
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climate policy across all Governmen
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economy. Capital investment will be
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environmental taxation. Eco-taxes,
Page 235 and 236:
Rural and Regional Development The
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away from a focus dominated by agri
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Rural development and the challenge
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public services and rural transport
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to oversee six pilot programmes to
Page 245 and 246:
Table 13.1: Distribution of Family
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Key policy priorities on Rural Deve
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addressed urgently as part of the C
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leaders promised to work together t
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In order to ensure good governance,
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• Sustainability should be the co
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vision of zero new HIV infections,
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as sufficient to ensure that everyo
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achieve his or her potential only i
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they live with sufficient income su
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Child benefit remains a key route t
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poverty by region and area Recent S
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the home due to a combination of th
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These results, which complement ear
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transition from boom to recession o
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until Budget 2005. At its first opp
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Table A4.1: Total tax revenue as a
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Effective tax rates To complement t
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Income taxation and the income dist
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Chart A4.3: VAT and excise duties a
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figure increased by almost one mill
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A7.4 Net Household Need 1993-2013 y
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Transport • Ireland’s car densi
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land use • In 2010, 10.7% of Irel
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goal 6: Combat HIv/AIDS, malaria an
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Browne, M. (2007) The Right Living
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Central Statistics Office (2006) In
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Daft (2013) Daft.ie rental report 2
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Department of Environment, Communit
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Department of Health (2012) Annual
Page 309 and 310:
Environmental Protection Agency (20
Page 311 and 312:
Eurostat (2013) Internet access and
Page 313 and 314:
Healy, S and Reynolds, B. (2003)
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International Monetary Fund (2012)
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National Anti-Poverty Strategy (199
Page 319 and 320:
Perkins, R., G. Sheil, B. Merriman,
Page 321 and 322:
United Nations Programme on HIV/AID
Page 326:
There is an extraordinary reluctanc
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2014-04-22 - Socio Economic Review 2014 - Full text and cover - FINAL

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