2014-04-22 - Socio Economic Review 2014 - Full text and cover - FINAL

Employment has finally begun to rise, with an increase of 61,100 in employment
between the fourth quarter of 2012 and fourth quarter of 2013. Long-term
unemployment was at 7.2% of the labour force as of the second quarter of 2013,
accounting for 61.4% of those who are unemployed. The International Monetary
Fund (2013: 12) estimates that unemployment will still be 11.7% in 2015, while the
department of Finance believes it will stand at 11.8% in 2015 and 11.4% in 2016
(Department of Finance, 2013a). The Government’s Medium-Term Economic Strategy
estimates unemployment will fall to 8.1% by 2020 (2013).
Government currently operates a number of schemes such as the Community
Employment Programme, Tús, and Rural Social Scheme which support part-time
work. However, government has also introduced schemes such as JobBridge, an
unpaid internship programme which provides an additional €50 a week for working
between 30 and 40 hours, and the proposed Local Government Social Employment
Scheme, which provides an additional €20 a week for working 19.5 hours a week for
a local authority, with the potential for sanctions if the person refuses. There are
dangers in the latter schemes, such as labour market displacement, exploitation,
demoralisation, and the erosion of the principle of a ‘fair day’s wage for a fair day’s
work’. They can also ignore the underlying lack of employment opportunities in the
economy.
The Nevin Economic Research Institute (2013: 33) has pointed to the fact that there
is currently 1 vacancy for every 32.3 jobseekers. Combining the rate of
underemployment – those involuntarily working part-time and seeking full-time
work – with the rate of unemployment shows that some 396,500 people, or 18.3%
of the labour force, are seeking more work. Without a restoration of domestic
demand and investment, it is simply not conceivable that employment will grow in
the non-traded sector. Policy discussions on ‘labour market activation’ often do not
take this reality into account, and political rhetoric can verge on the demonization
of the unemployed.
With regard to increasing demand and investment in the economy to increase
employment, our proposal for an investment programme would have an impact in
reducing unemployment.
c) Reduce Poverty
There is a real danger that Irish society will permit those on the lowest incomes, and
in particular those dependent on social welfare, to fall behind once again, as it did
in the late 1990s. From 2006, Ireland’s poverty levels had been slowly falling, driven
by increases in social welfare payments delivered in the Budgets of 2005-2007. These
increases compensated only partly for the extent to which social welfare rates had
fallen behind other incomes in society over the preceding two decades. However,
44 Socio-Economic Review 2014