Scoping mission on water in rwanda - Partners voor Water

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<strong>Scoping</strong> Mission on Rwanda for Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Kigali 2.4 Cross cutting issues – situation and challenges Climate change and Environment The draft National Strategy for Climate Change and Low Carbon Development (G0R, 2011) states the following: • Rwanda has the highest population density in Africa. Rwanda’s future socio-economic development is uncertain as its population grows and the climate changes, causing pressure on land, water, food and energy resources. Coupled with oil price spikes and population growth, climate change could reverse many of the development gains achieved. • As pressure on the land increases, urbanisation will increase and urban centres will expand. There is a risk of urban slums developing and creating associated health and social problems. Job creation, female education, health care and social protection are all needed to address population growth, while urban areas need to be designed as high density and resource efficient that can support a growing skilled workforce. • Rwanda is currently highly vulnerable to climate change as it is strongly reliant on rain-fed agriculture both for rural livelihoods and exports of tea and coffee. It also depends on hydropower for half of its electricity generation, a driver of economic growth. Rwanda has experienced a temperature increase of 1.4°C since 1970 and can expect an increase in temperature of up to 2.5°C by the 2050s from 1970. Rainfall is highly variable in Rwanda but average annual rainfall may increase by up to 20% by the 2050s from 1970. • Projections for East Africa over Rwanda and Burundi show an increasing trend in rainfall intensity for both rainy seasons which is likely to bring the negative consequence of floods and storms which result in landslides, crop losses and damage to infrastructure. Temperature rise may increase the spread of vector-borne diseases, impacting on animal and human health, and could negatively affect crop yields, impacting food security and export earnings. Higher temperatures result in higher altitudes at which tea and coffee can be grown, which will significantly impact the land available for tea and coffee, and may result in land use conflict as farmers look for higher altitude land. • Rwanda imports all of its oil-based products, which fuels almost half of Rwanda’s electricity generation capacity, and its entire transport sector. As a landlocked country in equatorial Africa, transport is limited to road and air, and import and export costs are high. Any increase in oil price has a significant negative effect on GDP and economic growth. Rwanda is fortunate in that it has large untapped clean energy resources in geothermal, hydro and solar, as well as a large methane gas resource in Lake Kivu. Together these have the potential to meet Rwanda’s electricity needs and replace oil-fuelled power plants. This would have the co-benefit of providing domestic energy security and supporting socio-economic development whilst significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) e<strong>mission</strong>s that contribute to global climate change. The challenge Rwanda faces lies in financing the exploitation of these energy resources. • Rwanda has one of the lowest e<strong>mission</strong>s per capita in the world, estimated at 0.65 tonnes CO2/person (including land use change), compared to a global average of 4.63 tonnes CO2/person. GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s in 2005 were dominated by CO2 (87%) at 531Gg, largely due to transport (52%) and industrial processes (28.5%). Total CO2 sequestration was 9,000Gg and land use change (conversion of forests and grasslands) was -545Gg making Rwanda a net carbon sink. CO2 e<strong>mission</strong>s from biomass and bunkers (aviation) were 7,228Gg and 17Gg respectively. The aggregate e<strong>mission</strong>s or total CO2 equivalent, used for measuring global warming potential, amounted to 5,010.4Gg in 2005, dominated by agriculture (78%) and energy (18%). Four key sources contribute 91% of aggregate e<strong>mission</strong>s: N2O from agricultural soils (57%), CH4 from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock (19%), CH4 from residential energy from fuel combustion (8%) and CO2 from road vehicles (5%) There are uncertainties in the GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s to verify due to inadequate representation, lack of basic data and application of e<strong>mission</strong>s factors for different conditions that need to be put in place. Page 13
<strong>Scoping</strong> Mission on Rwanda for Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Kigali The policy roadmap in Rwanda is: Vision 2050: For Rwanda to be a developed climate-resilient, low-carbon economy by 2050, having led the way for other developing countries to do the same. Guiding Principles include Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Gender Equality and Equity, Sustainability of the Environment and Natural resources Good Regional and Global Citizenship, Welfare and Wellness of all citizens in a growing population Strategic Objectives 1. To achieve Energy Security and a Low Carbon Energy Supply that supports the development of Green Industry and Services and avoids deforestation 2. To achieve Sustainable Land Use and Water Resource Management that results in Food Security, appropriate. Urban Development and preservation of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 3. To achieve Social Protection and Disaster Risk Reduction that reduces vulnerability to climate change impacts The intention is to mainstream this strategy in EDPRS 2013-2017, Vision 2020, sector strategies and District Development Plans, to use it in International Climate Policy, to operationalise the Green Fund and Adaptation Committee and define sources of finance. Amongst all programmes and actions, there are a few big wins that if implemented, will make a significant impact on mitigation, adaptation and economic development and Rwanda has identified 3 big wins in mitigation and 3 big wins in adaptation. Big Wins in Mitigation: 1. Geothermal power generation: Geothermal power is clean, renewable, reliable and large scale resource. It is a domestic resource, not shared with neighbouring countries like other large energy resources are, namely methane in Lake Kivu and hydropower on the Rusizi and Rusumo Rivers, and has near-zero e<strong>mission</strong>s and small land use impact, unlike peat. There is an estimated potential of up to 700MW of geothermal power in Rwanda and this would meet current domestic electricity demand if implemented. It could replace oil-fuelled power plants which currently supply 45% of electricity, result in high GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s, are vulnerable to oil price spikes and expensive for consumers. 2. Reduced dependency on inorganic fertilisers: The agricultural intensification programme in Rwanda is currently dependent on the application of inorganic fertiliser to increase crop yields, although these external inputs produce GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s through the fertiliser manufacturing process and the transportation of fertiliser products. However demand for inorganic fertilisers can be reduced by applying an integrated approach to soil fertility and nutrient management, which employs agro-ecology, resource recovery and reuse, and fertiliser enriched composts >. An integrated approach can significantly lower inorganic fertiliser demand, reduce GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s and increase farm profitability due to reduced input costs for farmers. Such approaches also improve soil structure and the water retention capacity of soils leading to resilient agricultural ecosystems and sustainable food security. 3. High density walkable cities: Otherwise Rwanda will face unprecedented levels of urban sprawl, largely due to hilly terrain. This forces people to travel greater distances than necessary, with motorised transport resulting in GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s and air pollution. Designing high-density cities with corridors for pedestrians and cyclists and green public spaces, would reduce the need for energy intensive transport and improve quality of life. Not only will this reduce GHG e<strong>mission</strong>s, but also reduce the burden of transport costs to citizens. Big wins in Adaptation: Page 14
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