EXPLAINING SOCIAL EXCLUSION - Institut für Soziologie

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy
switch in career paths. Data analysis showed that the cumulative duration
of all preceding unemployment spells reduces the likelihood of
upward social mobility; however, the likelihood of downward mobility
is not enlarged in this case. Contrary to the supposition of a destabilising
effect of long unemployment spells for the continuity of workrelated
behaviour, analysis shows apreference for risk-avoidance after
unemployment. After experiencing long spells of unemployment, people
tend to hold on to existing Jobs; mobility is avoided. The main result
of the event history analysis is that spells of unemployment in East
Germany are not the first steps of a downward spiralling mobility career.
In the optimal matching analysis the patterning of sequences
was studied. One could argue that there might be a group of persons
with a sequence of permanent unemployment or a combined sequence
of high unemployment and downward mobility. However, the highest
concentration of unemployment within the different career clusters is
not in the "big loss" cluster (with a characteristic of high rates of
downward mobility) but in the "risky decisions" cluster, which is characterised
by many transitions between heterogeneous statuses. Since
unemployment is often part of a "noisy" cluster with many changes, it
is even in the perspective of whole trajectories more a correlation to
Status transitions than a type of trajectory of its own.
These results are important for conceptions of societal exclusion.
From a life-course perspective, the main problem people face in
high unemployment situations is not permanent exclusion, but transitory
exclusion. This empirical perception is an argument against simplistic
conceptions of exclusion which is often wrongly viewed äs a
looming permanent fate. The transitory nature of modern forms of exclusion
is also important for policy issues äs one major aim may be to
structure labour markets in such a way that exclusionary positions can
be left faster.
Volume 21 Number 4/5/6 2001 111
is that older age groups and unqualified persons are not part of the
sample. An analysis including higher age groups may find more longterm
unemployment and more transitions from unemployment to
non-employment. However it is not clear, whether these patterns of
un- or non-employment are seen äs illegitimate forms of "exclusion",
äs the meaning of unemployment in higher age groups may be very
different from its meaning in young adulthood. It would also be necessary
to control results for unqualified young people. However, one has
to take into account that structural constraints in the GDR reduced the
overall number of unqualified youngsters to low margins. This fact is
in itself, although to a lesser degree, a characteristic of the schoolwork-transition
in West Germany.
Further research that is needed consists of systematic international
comparisons in this field. Our empirical analysis on the effects
of the transition process for employment careers in East Germany
leads to a rather optimistic evaluation of this process. It is necessary to
compare these results with other transition countries to find out, what
kind of structural components are necessary components for low degrees
of "scarring" after spells of unemployment in young adulthood.
Our analysis showed that quick structural adaptation to new employment
sectors and a high dynamic of Company formations are two
structural processes that produced new opportunities of upward mobility
for young East Germans, which might be a prerequisite for successful
transition processes. There might be other structural components,
e.g. certain combinations of education and labour market Systems such
äs strong apprenticeship Systems (Shavit and Müller 1998; Sackmann
1998) that are relevant factors for the degree of exclusion following
waves of unemployment. As many of these structural variables are
properties of societies and not attributes of individuals, only international
comparisons have a high potential in specifying some of these
causal effects.
Before drawing such general conclusions, we have to discuss
limitations of our data set. Our sample is only representative for two
qualification groups and certain age groups in East Germany. Relevant