EXPLAINING SOCIAL EXCLUSION - Institut fÃ¼r Soziologie

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International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 94 Since the 1980s, the new method called optimal matching analysis enables fmding patterns of sequences of states (Abbott 1995). Originally this method was used in DNA-analysis in genetics, but recently there is a growing literature of applications in life-course research (Abbott and Hrycack 1990; Han and Moen 1999; Halpin and Chan 1998; Scherer 1998). The optimal matching analysis uses algorithms that compute the similarity of sequences of states. In a second step the results of the similarity values are usually grouped by cluster analysis. The aim of this method is to find types of careers using the information of whole careers. Long-term effects of Unemployment spells on social mobility: Some hypotheses Research on the long-term effects of Unemployment spells on social mobility has not been conclusive. There is a set of competing theories resulting in contradictory hypotheses, which - to a certain extent - can be tested in empirical research. If one wants to model the effect of unemployment on mobility in the context of a transformation of a society, one has to specify what could be meant by the effects of unemployment on the one band and by the effects of structural transformation on the other. For the effects of Unemployment, existing labour market theories suggest four types of possible effects for the individual. One concerns the direction of social mobility influenced by a single spell of Unemployment. Theories of exclusion conclude a spiralling unemployment effect; unemployment is seen äs a decisive element for downward mobility (c.f. Kronauer et al. 1993). This view contrasts with theories of the transitory nature of unemployment, which conclude that unemployment simply indicates a switch in one's career, whatever direction this mobility process may take (c.f. Mutz et al. 1995). Hypothesis one is: unemployment only influencesprocesses of downward social mobility. The second hypothesis refers to cumulative processes of unemployment. Exclusion theories argue that unemployment spells are not evenly distributed among cases. Unemployment may be characterised Volume 21 Number 4/5/6 2001 95 äs a cumulative process. Some people become unemployed repeatedly. Signalling theory (Spence 1973) suggests similar effects: the longer the overall length of unemployment in a person's career, the less likely that an employer entrusts a rise in position to this person (Inkmann, Klotz and Pohlmeier 1998). Hypothesis two is: the higher the cumulative duration of all unemployment spells, the less likely upward social mobility. The third hypothesis refers to human capital and coping mechanisms for unemployment. Human capital theory suggests that the longer a single unemployment spell, the more likely a loss of human capital thereafter (Mincer and Ofek 1993). One would conclude that long spells of unemployment lead to downward social mobility. Contrary to this is the Suggestion of coping theory: People become more risk-averse after a spell of long-term unemployment. Therefore, mobility is reduced after long unemployment spells. In the USA, young people affected by a deprivation of their parental home caused by unemployment during the 1930s, were more risk-averse during their work-history than people who did not have this experience during their youth (Eider 1974). Similar coping-effects might be the resultof an experience of unemployment during adulthood. Hypothesis three is: the longer an unemployment spell, the less likely is it that there will be social mobility afterwards. The fourth hypothesis refers to processes of downwardspiralling mobility. Downward-spiralling suggests that downward mobility to qualification-inadequate positions is irreversible. Contrary to this, one might suppose that positions below one's level of qualification produce a kind of personal tension äs people feel they have more Potential than their current position suggests. Therefore, they try to rebalance individual resources and positions by moves of individual counter-mobility (Tuma 1985; Becker and Zimmermann 1995). Hypothesis four is that people in a position below their level ofqualification will be more likely to make transitions of upward mobility. Sociologically inspired labour market theory underlined the importance of structural components for the explanation of processes of
International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 96 mobility in individual careers (Kalleberg and S0rensen 1979). Processes of individual careers are embedded in a structural process of social change. An understanding of the macro-social transformation is important for the explanation of individual mobility. This especially holds true in the case of accelerated social change e.g. in countries of transition from a communist economy to a market economy. One advantage of event-history analysis is that it allows a dynamic analysis of macro-social processes and individual processes, thus differentiating micro- and macro-level causation (Biossfeld and Rohwer 1995). Three possible effects of the structural components of the transition process on individual mobility are important. A first thesis is on the general direction of structural change of mobility due to the transition process. Some theoreticians of the transition suggested a general trend of downward mobility in East Germany. Like the Mezzogiorno in Italy, peripheral East Germany loses its own economic potential; general downward mobility therefore prevails. Contrary to this, modernisation theory suggests a modernisation vis a vis the backwardness of the communist economic structure. Especially the modemising trend towards more employment in the tertiary sector is supposed to be accompanied by more upward mobility (Zapf 1994; Biossfeld 1989). Hypothesis five is: a general rise of employment in the tertiary sector causes more individual upward mobility. A further thesis refers to the effect of the general level of unemployment on mobility. One could argue that during periods of recession the number of involuntary exits rises, forcing people to leave Jobs. Thus higher unemployment levels would lead to higher mobility levels. Contrary to this, one Suggestion is that a rise of the general level of unemployment causes a higher risk in mobility moves (Schettkat 1992; DiPrete and Nonnemaker 1997). Therefore, the overall level of mobility is lower in times of high unemployment than in times of labour shortage, when there is more incentive and less risk to move between Jobs. Hypothesis six is: a general rise of unemployment reduces individual mobility. Volume 21 Number 4/5/6 2001 97 A last thesis refers to the connection between structural and organisational change. As evolutionary Organisation theory suggests (Hannan and Carroll 1992), social mobility is more likely after new companies have been formed and old companies have been closed than after the enlargement and shrinkage of established companies. Haveman and Cohen (1994) showed that in the banking sector of California a growing number of Company formations, mergers and closures caused a higher rate of social mobility of employees. Especially the quick privatisation policy (Pickel and Wiesenthal 1997) of the East German transformation (with high rates of firm formations and firm closures) could have caused more social mobility during this period. Hypothesis seven is: a general rise offormation of companies raises the likelihood of upward mobility, whereas a general rise ofclosure of companies raises the likelihood of downward mobility. The following event-history analysis focusses on these seven hypotheses. To reduce the risk of a maladjusted model, we controlled for a number of variables: labour force experience; occupational prestige of current Job; gender; children; employment in the public sector; entry-cohort; number of preceding employment history spells; and rriigration to West Germany. We will not comment on the results of these control-variables, which were discussed in other publications (Weymann, Sackmann and Wingens 1999). Results of the event history analysis The aim of our event-history analysis is to find out what the effect of unemployment on social mobility career transitions is. Young East Germans, who took their exams in 1985 and 1990, were observed until the middle of 1997. As unemployment did not exist in GDR the period "at risk" started in November 1989. As we did know the length of the employment spells before 1989, this information was used in the model thus avoiding "left censoring" (Guo 1993). A highly flexible piecewise constant exponential model with competing risks was used. The central idea of such a piecewise constant model is to split the process time axis into intervals and to allow a Variation of the constant between the intervals. The model allows to control approximately for the
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