EXPLAINING SOCIAL EXCLUSION - Institut für Soziologie

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 92
Unemployment and social mobility in East Germany
by Reinhold Sackmann, Professor, EMPAS, University of Bremen,
Michael Windzio, PD, EMPAS, University of Bremen and Matthias
Wingens, PD, University of Bremen
High unemployment rates are still a major problem faced by many
European societies; the Situation is especially grave during the transition
process from a communist to a market economy. We know that unemployment
has effects on the psychological well-being of persons
affected (Kieselbach 2000) and on the functioning of communities hit
by a high concentration of unemployment (Jahoda, Lazarsfeld and
Zeisel 1971). However, our knowledge with regard to the long-term effects
of unemployment on careers is rather limited. Some authors conclude
that unemployment is only a transition phase in the life course
and has a limited effect on long-term careers (Mutz et al. 1995). In contrast,
other authors argue that unemployment is a first step towards
processes of social exclusion, featuring unemployment äs a major
mechanism of disintegrating certain groups from Society (Kronauer,
Vogel and Gerlach 1993). Major social policy interventions fostering
workfare instead of welfare äs well äs programs focussing on employability
build on this kind of social diagnosis.
The effects of youth unemployment on careers may be even
more crucial. Youth unemployment in transition societies is seen äs a
critical life event, because long-term effects of unemployment may not
only leave a "scar" on the careers of the individuals (OECD 1998) but
can also be a cause of major social problems in transition societies, e.g.
criminal behaviour and, or racist behaviour, destabilising the fragile
equilibrium of accelerated social change in transition societies.
Thus, there is a need for empirical research on the long-term effects
of unemployment. Methodologically, longitudinal analysis, especially
event history analysis, was a major improvement for the study of
the connection of life courses and social change. The aim of this article
is to look into the long-term effects of unemployment on social mobility,
using longitudinal data on young East Germans during the transition
period. In order to simultaneously pursue transitions and
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trajectories, two methods are used: event-history and optimalmatching
analysis.
Data set
For the empirical analysis of the East German Career Study, a longitudinal
data set of young East German labour market entry cohorts is
used, which was set up at the Special Collaborative Centre 186. The
data set (Weymann, Sackmann and Wingens 1999) consists of 3776
young skilled workers who participated in an apprenticeship and
young university graduates, all taking exams in 1985 (before the transformation),
in 1990 (the reunification year) and 1995. The data set is
not representative for all young people in East Germany, but only for
the two most numerous qualification levels: young skilled workers and
Professionals. Thus we restrict generalisations of our results to these
groups. For questions of exclusion, you have to take into account that
the "unqualified" are not part of the sample. However, the "unqualified"
make up a very small group in East Germany, äs they only account
for 3% of the cohort of young people.
Theoretically, we take a dynamic approach to the phenomenon
of exclusion. Cross-sectional data on unemployment can be misleading,
äs they suggest that uniform levels of unemployment refer to a
constant group of the unemployed. Longitudinal studies that use life
event analysis have improved the dynamic analysis of unemployment.
Studies usually focus on processes that cause the selectivity of becoming
unemployed and processes causing exit from unemployment. Research
results from this method suggest that unemployment is a
transient position (Mutz et al. 1995). While results gained with this
method fürthered unemployment research, it also has some blind
spots. If one only looks at single transitions of unemployment, one can
miss its long-term effects. The starting point of our analysis is to look
into the long-term effects of unemployment for careers. To get an answer
to this question, we use two methods: a) we use event-history
analysis to see how unemployment (äs a time-dependent variable) influences
processes of social mobility; b) we use the relatively new
method of optimal matching analysis to find patterns of careers.