EXPLAINING SOCIAL EXCLUSION - Institut für Soziologie

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy 94
Since the 1980s, the new method called optimal matching analysis
enables fmding patterns of sequences of states (Abbott 1995).
Originally this method was used in DNA-analysis in genetics, but recently
there is a growing literature of applications in life-course research
(Abbott and Hrycack 1990; Han and Moen 1999; Halpin and
Chan 1998; Scherer 1998). The optimal matching analysis uses algorithms
that compute the similarity of sequences of states. In a second
step the results of the similarity values are usually grouped by cluster
analysis. The aim of this method is to find types of careers using the information
of whole careers.
Long-term effects of Unemployment spells on social mobility:
Some hypotheses
Research on the long-term effects of Unemployment spells on social
mobility has not been conclusive. There is a set of competing theories
resulting in contradictory hypotheses, which - to a certain extent - can
be tested in empirical research. If one wants to model the effect of unemployment
on mobility in the context of a transformation of a society,
one has to specify what could be meant by the effects of unemployment
on the one band and by the effects of structural transformation on
the other.
For the effects of Unemployment, existing labour market theories
suggest four types of possible effects for the individual. One concerns
the direction of social mobility influenced by a single spell of
Unemployment. Theories of exclusion conclude a spiralling unemployment
effect; unemployment is seen äs a decisive element for
downward mobility (c.f. Kronauer et al. 1993). This view contrasts
with theories of the transitory nature of unemployment, which conclude
that unemployment simply indicates a switch in one's career,
whatever direction this mobility process may take (c.f. Mutz et al.
1995). Hypothesis one is: unemployment only influencesprocesses of
downward social mobility.
The second hypothesis refers to cumulative processes of unemployment.
Exclusion theories argue that unemployment spells are not
evenly distributed among cases. Unemployment may be characterised
Volume 21 Number 4/5/6 2001 95
äs a cumulative process. Some people become unemployed repeatedly.
Signalling theory (Spence 1973) suggests similar effects: the longer
the overall length of unemployment in a person's career, the less likely
that an employer entrusts a rise in position to this person (Inkmann,
Klotz and Pohlmeier 1998). Hypothesis two is: the higher the cumulative
duration of all unemployment spells, the less likely upward social
mobility.
The third hypothesis refers to human capital and coping mechanisms
for unemployment. Human capital theory suggests that the
longer a single unemployment spell, the more likely a loss of human
capital thereafter (Mincer and Ofek 1993). One would conclude that
long spells of unemployment lead to downward social mobility. Contrary
to this is the Suggestion of coping theory: People become more
risk-averse after a spell of long-term unemployment. Therefore, mobility
is reduced after long unemployment spells. In the USA, young
people affected by a deprivation of their parental home caused by unemployment
during the 1930s, were more risk-averse during their
work-history than people who did not have this experience during their
youth (Eider 1974). Similar coping-effects might be the resultof an experience
of unemployment during adulthood. Hypothesis three is: the
longer an unemployment spell, the less likely is it that there will be social
mobility afterwards.
The fourth hypothesis refers to processes of downwardspiralling
mobility. Downward-spiralling suggests that downward mobility
to qualification-inadequate positions is irreversible. Contrary to
this, one might suppose that positions below one's level of qualification
produce a kind of personal tension äs people feel they have more
Potential than their current position suggests. Therefore, they try to rebalance
individual resources and positions by moves of individual
counter-mobility (Tuma 1985; Becker and Zimmermann 1995). Hypothesis
four is that people in a position below their level ofqualification
will be more likely to make transitions of upward mobility.
Sociologically inspired labour market theory underlined the importance
of structural components for the explanation of processes of