the June 2008 Issue in PDF Format - Trade Show Executive

T r e n d i n g & S p e n d i n g
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Trade Show Executive’s
Trending & Spending Forecast
Fig. V: Sector Performance
Best Performing Sectors
• Automotive • Manufacturing
• Business Services • Medical
• Entertainment • Hospitality
• Government • Transportation
Mixed Performance
• Apparel
• Sporting
• Construction
Goods &
• Food
Recreation
• Gifts
Improving Sectors
• Retailing
• Technology
Fig. VI: 10 Economic Indicators
Consumer Confidence: The Consumer Confidence Index
continues to fall, and reached a five-year low of 57.2, down from
62.8 in April.
Housing Starts: New home construction posted the largest
increase in more than two years in April, gaining 8.2%. Building
permits jumped 4.9%.
Industrial Production: Industrial production declined 0.7% in
April after rising 0.2% in March.
Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy
costs, rose 0.4% in April, twice as fast as March. It has been at
or near the upper end of the Fed’s comfort zone for several months.
Interest Rate: The Fed cut the Federal Funds rate to 2% in
April, following a dramatic three-quarter percentage point cut in
March. The Fed has signaled that this may end its most aggressive
rate-cutting campaign in two decades.
Job Growth: Employers trimmed jobs in April by 20,000. This
was less than expected and not as severe as in March when
payrolls dropped by 80,000 jobs.
Leading Indicators: The Leading Index increased slightly in
April for the second month in a row, after five straight months of
decline. Stock prices, interest rates and housing permits positively
impacted the index.
Manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing Index edged up
0.3 percentage points to 48.6 in March but remained below the
expansion/contraction line of 50 for the third straight month. Bright
spots include continued strength in new export orders.
Retail Sales: Stripping out volatile auto sales, retail sales rose
0.5% in April, well above the 0.2% increase expected.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate reached 5.0%
in April, up slightly from 4.7% in March. Employment continued to
decline in construction, manufacturing and retail. Jobs were added
in health care and in the professional and technical services sector.
Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; The
Conference Board; The Institute for Supply Management (ISM); U.S.
Commerce Department
Continued from page 14
just creates a negative psychological
environment for decision makers and can
be self-fulfilling,” Chow believes.
Even the Bloomberg headline
from the most recent survey from
the prestigious National Association
of Business Economists (NABE) is
bewildering: “U.S. Recession to End by
September, Business Economists Say.”
The economists predicted the
GDP would rebound to 2.1% for the
second half of 2008. GDP has been as
low as 0.4% for Q2 of 2008 and 0.6% in
both Q1 of 2008 and Q4 of 2007. Yet
despite the fact there were no quarters
with negative GDP growth, 56% of the
forecasters predicted a recession this
year, even though they maintained that
the worst of the U.S. credit crunch and
housing slump is almost over.
Not all economists or consumers
believe the worst is over, said Chow.
“Some analysts think we are in the calm
before the next storm,” he pointed out.
The University of Michigan preliminary
consumer sentiment survey for May fell
to a 28-year low reading of 59.5 from
62.6 in April and was below the 62.0
economists expected.
Acquisitions, Trade Show Growth Help
Prop Up the Economy
“By now, it should be obvious that
the direction of the economy is uncertain
at this time,” Chow said. However, the
fact that many show organizations and
vendors have access to ample amounts
of capital for acquisitions or to buy
back stock is a good sign. Unlike prior
recessions, corporate America and the
trade show industry may help keep the
economy humming even if consumers
scale back their spending.
New Member of Exposition
Forecasting Board
Jack Chalden, vice president of
business development and industry
relations for BDMetrics, has joined
the Exposition Forecasting Board of Trade
Show Executive and will submit monthly
forecasts and commentary. Chalden
has 36 years of executive management
experience, running ten of the nation’s
largest trade shows in five industry
sectors. He was general manager
of SUPERCOMM; executive vice
president of the Atlanta Market Center,
Inc.; vice president of ECI, which
produced the Wescon, Midcon and Electro
events; vice president of Concrete
Construction Publications, where he
launched the World of Concrete; and vice
president of the Illinois Lumber &
Material Dealers Association.
Chalden is active in many industry
organizations. He served on the Board
of Directors of IAEE (International
Association of Exhibitions & Events);
chairman of the Board of MATSO
(Major American Trade Show
Organizers); member of Trade Show
Executive magazine’s Editorial Advisory
Board and on the boards of three
convention bureaus.
“Jack brings a unique perspective
to TSE’s Exposition Forecasting Board,”
said Darlene Gudea, vice president/
publisher & editor. “With the wide
breadth and depth of data that
BDMetrics has on many leading trade
shows, Chalden can begin to see
patterns and changes in the marketplace
long before they become pronounced
trends.”
How Trade Show Executive Magazine’s Trending & Spending Was Compiled
Trade Show Executive Magazine’s Trending
& Spending Forecast aggregates information
from numerous sources: government and
business reports; interviews with industry
experts and economists; and the TSE
monthly poll of its 20-member Economic
Forecasting Board. Unbiased, reliable
data—whether positive or negative—is the
foundation of solid business planning. TSE
16 June 2008 Trade Show Executive www.TradeShowExecutive.com