Close Brothers Seydler Research AG - BVB Aktie - Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund GmbH & CO KGaA
Peer groups: Company data (margins)
Company name
EBITDA-margin
EBIT-margin
Sales growth
12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E
Borussia Dortmund 32.0% 25.6% 26.7% 25.7% 15.5% 15.7% 34.4% -17.0% 5.9%
JUVENTUS FOOTBALL CLUB SPA - - 22.4% - - 0.9% - - -
OL GROUPE - - -15.1% - - -2.8% -6.8% - -
MANCHESTER UNITED PLC-CL A 33.2% 28.6% 30.5% 19.1% 13.3% 16.4% - -3.4% 15.4%
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN CO-A - 22.1% 24.2% - 15.1% 16.9% - - 11.0%
Average 33.2% 25.4% 15.5% 19.1% 14.2% 7.8% -6.8% -3.4% 13.2%
Median 33.2% 25.4% 23.3% 19.1% 14.2% 8.6% -6.8% -3.4% 13.2%
Source: Bloomberg, CBS Research AG
Valuation
As already mentioned, we applied the median of the peer group multiples for
2013/2014E-2014/2015E to our financial forecasts for BVB.
We chose the PE-multiple and the EV/Sales-multiples. We added BVB´s net cash
(cash minus financial debt) to the derived enterprise values. In case of the P/E
valuation we directly calculated the fair market value of the company.
We applied the median
of the peer group
multiples
We chose Sales, and
PE multiples
Market multiple and derived valuation
Company name
P/E EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT EV / Sales
12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E
JUVENTUS FOOTBALL CLUB SPA - n.m. - - 6.1 5.8 - n.m. 42.1 - 1.4 1.4
OL GROUPE - n.m. n.m. - n.m. n.m. - n.m. n.m. - 0.9 0.8
MANCHESTER UNITED PLC-CL A 18.8 13.6 7.2 24.9 20.2 12.9 n.m. 37.7 16.6 n.m. n.m. 5.0
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN CO-A 2.9 1.9 1.7 16.3 13.4 12.2 27.4 19.8 17.7 3.6 3.3 2.9
Average 10.9 7.8 4.5 20.6 13.3 10.3 27.4 28.8 25.5 3.6 1.8 2.5
Median 10.9 7.8 4.5 20.6 13.4 12.2 27.4 28.8 17.7 3.6 1.4 2.2
EPS
EBITDA
EBIT
Sales
EURm, except EPS (EUR) 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E 12/13E 13/14E 14/15E
Borussia Dortmund: Financial estimates CBS Research 0.82 0.40 0.43 92.5 61.5 67.8 74.5 37.2 39.9 289.4 240.2 254.4
Applied multiples: Peer group median 10.9 7.8 4.5 20.6 13.4 12.2 27.4 28.8 17.7 3.6 1.4 2.2
Enterprise value (derived) - - - 1,905.1 827.5 830.4 2,044.8 1,070.9 707.3 1,044.1 330.7 547.6
- Net debt -43.0
Market capitalisation (derived) - 192.3 118.4 - - - - - - - 287.8 504.7
Average 275.8
Premium (discount) vs. Peer Group -20%
Fair market capitalisation 220.6
Number of shares (m) 61.4
Fair value per share (EUR) 3.59
Source: Bloomberg, CBS Research AG
Our multiple valuation of BVB resulted in a fair value of equity of EUR 220.6m (after
a discount of 20% based on the German 50+1 regulation). According to our multiple
valuation, the fair value per share amounts to EUR 3.59.
Our multiple valuation
resulted in a fair value
of EUR 3.59 per share
DCF valuation
Overall our DCF model is based on the following assumptions:
Assumptions:
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC): On basis of the current long-term
yields of German federal bonds, we set the risk-free rate at 3.0%. We assumed an
equity risk premium of 6.0%, and a debt risk premium of 3.0%. Although the
company´s stocks have been listed for a long period, we did not apply BVB´s
historical beta to our WACC calculation. We decided to apply a beta of 1.60. The
WACC 10.12%
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