Close Brothers Seydler Research AG - BVB Aktie - Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund GmbH & CO KGaA
Financial forecast
Preview 4Q12E
We expect that this fiscal year will end very positively after already very promising
9M figures. Overall, we expect the group to achieve total revenues of EUR 289.4m
in 2012/2013E, indicating a 34.4% growth YoY. Therefore, 4QE revenues will
amount to EUR 109.0m (including the transfer income of EUR 37m for Mario Götze
as announced at the end of April). On segment level the major contributor remains
the TV-marketing segment with revenues of EUR 26.3m in 4QE and EUR 86.9m for
FY2012/2013E (2011:2012: EUR 60.4m; +43.8% YoY). This strong increase mostly
results from the tremendous performance in the UEFA Champions League by
reaching the Final (25 May in Wembley against FC Bayern München).
4Q positively affected
by Götze transfer and
success in Champions
League
While we did not include any premiums due for winning the cup (conservative
approach), we do believe that BVB has as a good a chance to win the Champions
League as the opponent FC Bayern München despite the press comment whom
see FC Bayern as an odd-on favourite.
Besides the above mentioned segment also the segments Advertising (Revenues:
4QE EUR 22.9m; 2012/2013E: EUR 69.82m; +20.8% YoY) and Match operations
(Revenues: 4QE EUR 10.8m; 2012/2013E: EUR 40.5m; +28.9% YoY) will end with
strong growth YoY. Overall, most of the jump in sales is based on this year’s
success in the Champions League. The Retail, Catering, Licensing & Other unit
should also grow both QoQ and YoY. We assume that this segment will achieve
revenues of EUR 47.4m in 2012/2013E of which EUR 12.1m will be generated in
4Q 12/13E.
All segments positive
However, while the roster is playing an incredible season this also may lead to an
increase in demand BVB player’s in the future (transfers). At the end of April one of
such cases occurred as it came public that FC Bayern München will buy BVB super
talent Mario Götze for the sum of EUR 37m due to an exit clause in Götze’s
contract. As a result, we expect this year’s Transfer segment to achieve revenues
of EUR 44.8m of which EUR 37m will be booked into 4Q. Up to now, we no further
finalised deal has been announced and given the ongoing rumours about Robert
Lewandowski. We at least expect no news concerning him playing for additional
season (and then will be a free agent) or immediate transfer to FC Bayern
München (as many speculate) or to a big club in Europe (most likely England or
Spain).
Götze transfer and
rumours about
Lewandowski
With revenues of EUR 289.4m and overall OPEX of EUR 219.8m, EBITDA is
forecasted to come in at EUR 92.5m (margin: 32.0%), mostly supported by the sale
of Götze and the unexpected performance in the Champions League. The club has
even the chance to win the cup which would lift up the figures even higher.
Compared to 2011/2012 this is an increase of 54.1% YoY (2011: 2012: EUR
60.0m). Group EBIT therefore should be at EUR 74.5m (margin: 25.7%). All in all,
net income after minorities is expected to stand at EUR 50.7m after EUR 27.4m in
2011/2012. The corresponding EPS is at EUR 0.82 (prev. year: EUR 0.45).
EBITDA is strong in
2012/2013E
Therefore, for 4Q 2012/2013E we expect group revenues of EUR 109.0m, which
should lead to an EBITDA of EUR 52.3m, EBIT of EUR 51.2m after all to a net
income of EUR 33.9m. Worth mentioning that possible additional transfers as well
as the chance of winning the Champions League are currently not included into our
estimates.
4QE with outstanding
upside
www.cbseydlerresearch.ag Close Brothers Seydler Research AG | 47