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The base case scenario
The base case scenario implies continuity with historical
patterns (including development policies pursued in recent
decades). However, the model’s complex dynamics—including
a wide range of nonlinear relationships—provide a structure
that can also generate nonlinear future patterns that differ
considerably from historical trajectories.
The accelerated progress scenario
Under the accelerated progress scenario, resources and policy
ambition increase substantially compared with the base case.
Table A2 lists choices and targets for appropriate (aggressive but
reasonable) magnitudes of intervention in poverty reduction,
infrastructure and governance, among others. Changes are
relative to the underlying values for each country in the base
case scenario and therefore take into account different national
starting points and patterns.
Table A2
Targets for appropriate magnitudes of intervention, relative to the base case scenario
Policy area Over 10 years Over 20 years Over 30 years Over 40 years
Global level
Poverty reduction
• Doubling of lending by international
financial institutions
• Foreign aid donations from developed
countries increased to at least 0.5%
of GDP
• 30% increase in foreign direct
investment
• 50% increase in portfolio investment
flows
• 20% increase in expenditure on
research and development
• 50% increase in migration
Infrastructure a • Rural population living more than 2
kilometres from an all-season road
reduced by half or to below 10%
(whichever comes first)
• Universal access to electricity
• Elimination of solid fuels as the
primary source for heating and
cooking in the home
Governance b
Regional and
domestic levels c
• Corruption reduced and governance
effectiveness and regulatory quality
increased globally to one standard error
above typical values for each country’s
GDP per capita
• Measures of democracy and gender
empowerment increased to one
standard error above typical values for
each country’s GDP per capita
• For developing countries: 20% increase
in health spending, 20% improvement in
governance effectiveness on the World
Bank scale, 20% increase in economic
freedom on Fraser Institute scale, and
0.2% increase in technologically based
productivity growth
• Probability of internal conflict
reduced to 0
• 10% increase (about 3 percentage
points of GDP) in government revenue
in non–Organisation for Economic Cooperation
and Development countries
• 30% decrease in corruption on the
Transparency International scale
• 20% improvement in
infrastructure
• Universal access to an improved
source of water and sanitation
(after having been halved from
1990 levels by 2015)
• Universal access to mobile
telephone and broadband service
• 50% increase in
renewable energy
production
a. Includes transportation, energy, water and sanitation, and information and communication technology. The global targets are a combination of normative targets (such as aspirational targets from the
Millennium Development Goals) and, considering the possibility of goal fulfilment by all countries, 97.5% level of truly universal goals.
b. Governance is conceptualized in three dimensions—security, capacity and inclusion. The security dimension is operationalized with two generally complementary measures of the probability of domestic
conflict and of the vulnerability to conflict. The capacity dimension is operationalized as the governments’ ability to mobilize revenue (up to 30% of GDP) and to use it effectively (looking especially to lower
levels of corruption). The inclusion dimension is operationalized as the democratic character of institutions and also as broader inclusiveness, as represented by the Human Development Report’s Gender
Empowerment Measure.
c. Regional specific targets are available in Pardee Center for International Futures (2013).
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