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Simulation of Clinical Trials with Mathematical Models ... - CBI

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Cumulative Incidence <strong>of</strong> Diabetes<br />

20<br />

The simulation was prospectively validated<br />

against the original trial<br />

0.5<br />

DPP: Diabetes Progression<br />

0.45<br />

0.4<br />

0.35<br />

0.3<br />

0.25<br />

0.2<br />

0.15<br />

0.1<br />

0.05<br />

0<br />

Current<br />

28.9% 27.4%<br />

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 care 3.5 4<br />

Time (years)<br />

3-Yr<br />

Timepoint<br />

Actual<br />

control<br />

metformin<br />

lifestyle<br />

Simulated<br />

Metformin 21.7% 21.9%<br />

Lifestyle 14.4% 13.2%

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