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Petrochemical Sec<strong>to</strong>r<br />
Feed S<strong>to</strong>ck & Basic Chemical Prices<br />
» We forecast crude oil prices <strong>to</strong> remain in <strong>the</strong> range of US$55-65 per barrel and gas prices at US$5.5-6.5<br />
per mmbtu till 2011, which will result lower basic chemical prices.<br />
» Local <strong>com</strong>plexes are getting feeds<strong>to</strong>ck gas at a highly subsidized rate of US$0.75 per mmbtu and also<br />
getting naphtha at around 30.0% discount <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> international prices.<br />
Crude Oil (US$ / bbl) & Gas (US$ / mmbtu)<br />
120.0<br />
100.0<br />
80.0<br />
60.0<br />
40.0<br />
20.0<br />
8.0<br />
7.0<br />
6.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
3.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
Prices of Basic Chemicals (US$ per <strong>to</strong>n)<br />
1,650<br />
1,450<br />
1,250<br />
1,050<br />
850<br />
650<br />
800.0<br />
700.0<br />
600.0<br />
500.0<br />
400.0<br />
300.0<br />
200.0<br />
-<br />
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E<br />
Crude Oil (LHS) Gas (RHS)<br />
Source: OPEC & Global Research<br />
-<br />
4Q07<br />
1Q08<br />
2Q08E<br />
3Q08E<br />
4Q08E<br />
1Q09E<br />
Ethylene<br />
Propylene<br />
Methyl Tretiary Butyl E<strong>the</strong>r (MTBE)<br />
Source: Global Research<br />
2Q09E<br />
3Q09E<br />
Butene<br />
Global Investment House 32 Saudi Arabia Economic Overview - January 2009
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