UNIVERSITY OF KERALA - College of Engineering, Trivandrum

08.806.6 Elective-IV PROBABILISTIC METHODS IN
CIVIL ENGINEERING
L T P/D Cr
3 0 0 3
Review: Probability, Sample space and events, Axioms of probability.
Module I
Uncertainties in engineering – aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Modelling of uncertainties, Random events,
Total probability and Baye’s theorem, Independence of events, Random variables, Discrete and continuous
random variables, probability distribution and density functions – properties, Main descriptors of a random
variable – central values, Mathematical expectation, Measures of dispersion, Measure of skewness, Kurtosis.
Uniform, normal and lognormal distributions.
Module II
Moments of a random variable, moment generating functions, multi-dimensional random variables, Joint
probability distribution, conditional and marginal distribution, covariance and correlation. (Problems on
bivariate random variables only).
Functions of random variables – function of a single random variable, functions of two random variables,
Moments of functions of random variables.
Module II
Role of probability and statistics in civil engineering, Frequency analysis – estimation of probability of
exceedence, Return period of extreme events such as flood and earthquake- Weibull’s formula, Estimation of
characteristic compressive strength from sample values.
Structural Reliability, Performance function and limit surface, Margin of safety, First Order Reliability methods
(FORM) –Cornell’s reliability index – Limitations, Geometric interpretation of reliability index – Hasofer Lind
reliability index (Concept only, no numerical problems).
Concept of Monte Carlo Simulation, Introduction to reliability based design – Determination of partial safety
factors (qualitative ideas only).
References:
1. A.H.S. Ang and W.H. Tang, Probability Concepts in Engineering, John Wiley&Sons Inc.
2. R. Ranganathan, Structural Reliability- Analysis and Design, Jaico Publishing House, Mumbai.
3. A.S. Nowak, K.R. Collins, Reliability of Structures, McGraw Hill, Boston.
4. A. Papoulis and S.U. Pillai, Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Process, Tata McGraw Hill,
New Delhi.
5. Sheldon Ross, A first course in Probability, Pearson Education.
6. P. Jayarami Reddi, A text book of Hydrology, Laxmi Publiscation (Pvt) Ltd, New Delhi.
Question Paper: Duration: 3 hours
The Question paper contains Part A and Part B.
Part A carries 8 compulsory questions (short answer questions) covering the entire syllabus and is for 40 marks.
Part B is for 60 marks. There will be two questions from each module. The candidate has to answer one
question out of two.
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