County of San Diego 2005/2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

County 2005 VMT to estimate 2020 travel activity. While this increase is attributed to regional travel as a whole
and not specifically local travel in unincorporated areas, local VMT is likely to follow a similar trend, and this
forecasting approach is more reliable than applying state-wide travel forecasts to the local level. 23
4.3.4 Solid Waste and Wastewater Forecasts
Population is the primary determinate for growth in emissions pertaining to waste and wastewater generation.
Therefore, the average annual population growth rate from 2006 to 2020 (1.93 percent, as calculated from abovereferenced
SANDAG population projections) was used to estimate future emissions from solid waste disposal and
wastewater treatment.
Table 4.7: 2005 Community Emissions Growth Forecast
by Sector
Sector
2005
(metric
tons CO 2e)
2020
(metric
tons CO 2 e)
Annual
Growth
Rate
Percent
Change from
2005 to 2020
Residential 505,963 674,772 1.94% 33.4%
Commercial / Industrial 615,687 642,396 0.28% 4.3%
Transportation 2,909,342 3,553,619 1.34% 22.1%
Solid Waste 144,865 192,899 1.93% 33.2%
Wastewater 21,808 29,039 1.93% 33.2%
TOTAL 4,197,665 5,092,725 -- 21.3%
23 New fuel efficiency standards under the federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program and State of California “Clean Car”
standards under AB 1493 (Pavley) could significantly reduce the demand for transportation fuel in San Marcos. An analysis of potential fuel
savings from these measures at a scale that would be useful for the purpose of this report has not been conducted, nor would such an analysis
produce a true business-as-usual estimation.
2005/2006 San Diego County Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 39