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Contents 11. Observed changes in ocean acidity (pH) compared to concentration of carbon dioxide dissolved in seawater (p CO 2 ) alongside the atmospheric CO 2 record from 1956 11 12. Geographical overview of the record reduction in September’s sea ice extent compared to the median distribution for the period 1979–2000 12 13. (a) Arctic sea ice extent for 2007–12, with the 1979–2000 average in dark grey; light grey shading represents two standard deviations. (b) Changes in multiyear ice from 1983 to 2012 12 14. Russia 2010 and United States 2012 heat wave temperature anomalies as measured by satellites 13 15. Distribution (top panel) and timeline (bottom) of European summer temperatures since 1500 13 16. Excess deaths observed during the 2003 heat wave in France. O= observed; E= expected 14 17. Drought conditions experienced on August 28 in the contiguous United States 14 18. Northern Hemisphere land area covered (left panel) by cold (< -0.43σ), very cold (< -2σ), extremely cold (< -3σ) and (right panel) by hot (> 0.43σ), very hot (> 2σ) and extremely hot (> 3σ) summer temperatures 15 19. Observed wintertime precipitation (blue), which contributes most to the annual budget, and summertime temperature (red), which is most important with respect to evaporative drying, with their long-term trend for the eastern Mediterranean region 16 20. Probabilistic temperature estimates for old (SRES) and new (RCP) IPCC scenarios 21 21. Probabilistic temperature estimates for new (RCP) IPCC scenarios, based on the synthesized carbon-cycle and climate system understanding of the IPCC AR4 23 22. Median estimates (lines) from probabilistic temperature projections for two nonmitigation emission scenarios 24 23. The correlation between regional warming and precipitation changes in the form of joint distributions of mean regional temperature and precipitation changes in 2100 is shown for the RCP3-PD and RCP8.5 scenarios 25 24. Simulated historic and 21st century global mean temperature anomalies, relative to the preindustrial period (1880–1900), for 24 CMIP5 models based on the RCP8.5 scenario 25 25. Projected impacts on coral reefs as a consequence of a rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration 26 26. Ocean surface pH. Lower pH indicates more severe ocean acidification, which inhibits the growth of calcifying organisms, including shellfish, calcareous phytoplankton, and coral reefs 26 27. Sea level (blue, green: scale on the left) and Antarctic air temperature (orange, gray: scale on the right) over the last 550,000 years, from paleo-records 30 28. As for Figure 22 but for global mean sea-level rise using a semi-empirical approach 32 29. As for Figure 22 but for annual rate of global mean sea-level rise 32 30. Present-day sea-level dynamic topography 32 31. Present-day rates of regional sea-level rise due to land-ice melt only (modeled from a compilation of land-ice loss observations) 33 32. Sea-level rise in a 4°C warmer world by 2100 along the world’s coastlines, from South to North 33 33. Multimodel mean of monthly warming over the 21st century (2080–2100 relative to present day) for the months of JJA and DJF in units of degrees Celsius and in units of local standard deviation of temperature 38 34. Multimodel mean of the percentage of months during 2080–2100 that are warmer than 3-, 4- and 5-sigma relative to the present-day climatology 39 v
Turn Down the <strong>Heat</strong>: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided 35. Multimodel mean compilation of the most extreme warm monthly temperature experienced at each location in the period 2080–2100 40 36. Distribution of monthly temperature projected for 2070 (2.9°C warming) across the terrestrial and freshwater components of WWF’s Global 200 53 A1.1: Regional sea-level projection for the lower ice-sheet scenario and the higher ice sheet scenario 68 A1.2: Difference in sea-level rise between a 4°C world and a 2°C world for the lower and higher ice-sheet scenario 68 A2.1: Simulated historic and 21st century global mean temperature anomalies, relative to the pre-industrial period (1880–1900), for 24 CMIP5 models based on the RCP8.5 scenario 71 Tables 1. Record Breaking Weather Extremes 2000–12 18 2. Global Mean Sea-Level Projections Between Present-Day (1980–99) and the 2090–99 Period 31 3. Projected Impacts on Different Crops Without and With Adaptation 45 4. Projected Changes in Median Maize Yields under Different Management Options and Global Mean Warming Levels 46 5. Number of People Affected by River Flooding in European Regions (1000s) 55 Boxes 1. What are Emission Scenarios? 22 2. Predictability of Future Sea-Level Changes 30 3. Sub-Saharan Africa 62 vi
Page 1 and 2: Turn Down the Heat Why a 4°C Warme
Page 3 and 4: © 2012 International Bank for Reco
Page 5: Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warm
Page 10 and 11: Foreword It is my hope that this re
Page 13 and 14: Executive Summary
Page 15 and 16: Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warm
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 1
Page 23: Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warm
Page 26 and 27: Observed Climate Changes and Impact
Page 42 and 43: 21st Century Projections This secti
Page 44 and 45: 21st Century Projections technologi
Page 46 and 47: 21st Century Projections Figure 23:
Page 48 and 49: 21st Century Projections A differen
Page 50 and 51: Focus: Sea-level Rise Projections P
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Chapter 5
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Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warm
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Chapter 6
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System Interaction and Non-linearit
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Appendix 1
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Appendix 2
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Bibliography
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