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CUNY Master Plan 2012-2016

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INTRODUCTION<br />

2011, enrollment exceeded 33,000 in the graduate and professional schools, an increase of 6 percent<br />

from 2008. In addition, in 2010-2011, the <strong>CUNY</strong> Continuing Education and Workforce Development<br />

programs served more than 200,000 students.<br />

<strong>CUNY</strong> has always been an educational destination for immigrants and their children. If the following<br />

assumptions hold true, the effect on the University will be substantial.<br />

• If projections of continuing immigration into New York City are accurate;<br />

• If projections of increases in New York City’s total population are accurate;<br />

• If trends in New York City public high school graduation rates continue;<br />

• If projections of DOE enrollment are accurate;<br />

• If trends in <strong>CUNY</strong>’s share of DOE graduates continues increasing at the same rate; and<br />

• If trends in <strong>CUNY</strong>’s first-time freshman enrollment continue (with no enrollment caps).<br />

Despite Declining DOE Enrollments, <strong>CUNY</strong> Will Likely See Increased Market Demand.<br />

Projections of <strong>CUNY</strong> Freshman DOE Graduates under Different Graduation Rate Scenarios<br />

28,000<br />

26,000<br />

Average (2.0%)<br />

Annual Rate Increases<br />

24,000<br />

22,000<br />

Modest (0.5%)<br />

Annual Rate Increases<br />

No New<br />

Graduation Rate Increases<br />

20,000<br />

2011 <strong>2012</strong> 2013 2014 2015 <strong>2016</strong> 2017 2018<br />

Note: estimated numbers of graduates enrolling in the fall after graduation, assuming that the share of the DOE college-going<br />

population enrolling at <strong>CUNY</strong> remains the same.<br />

Source: <strong>CUNY</strong> OIRA and DOE<br />

Considering these trends, by fall 2018, DOE graduates could represent more than 85 percent of firsttime<br />

freshmen entering <strong>CUNY</strong>, composing an estimated 38,500 of the nearly 44,000 first-time freshmen<br />

(up from 26,400 of a total of about 37,000 first-time freshmen in 2011).<br />

<strong>CUNY</strong> Students: Current Demographics<br />

Fall 2011 data show that <strong>CUNY</strong> undergraduates are more likely to be female (58 percent) than male,<br />

as are the students in the graduate and professional colleges (66 percent), and that the mean age of the<br />

undergraduates is 24, although 28 percent are 25 or older. Approximately 41 percent of <strong>CUNY</strong> under-<br />

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