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Missing Targets: An alternative MDG midterm report Table 2: Philippines MDG Rate of Progress at the Sub-national Levels MDG Targets Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3 Goal 4 Goal 5 Goal 6 Goal 7 Region Proportion of population below subsistence threshold Proportion of population below poverty threshold Prevalence of malnutrition among 0-5 year-old children Proportion of households with per capita intake below 100% dietary energy requirement* Elementary participation rate Elementary cohort survival rate Ratio of girls to 100 boys in elementary Ratio of girls to 100 boys in secondary Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 children) Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) Maternal mortality rate Prevalence of men and women/ couples practicing responsible parenthood HIV prevalence Malaria morbidity rate (per 100,000 population) Proportion of families with no access to safe drinking water CAR High High High Low Incomplete data Low Low No data High Medium High No data No data High High I High High High High Medium Medium Medium High High High High Low No data High Low II High High High High Low Low Low No data High Medium High No data No data High High III High High High Medium Low Medium No data No data High High High Low No data No data Low IV-A High High Low No Baseline Low Medium Low High High High High No data No data No data Low IV-B Low Low No Baseline No Baseline No data High No data No data No data High High High No data No data Low V High High High Low Low Medium High No data High High Low Low No data High Low VI High Low No data High Low Low No data No data Low Low Low No data No data No data High No VII High High High Low Low Low No data High High High High Low No data baseline Low VIII High Low Low Low High Low Low Low High High Low No data No data No data High IX Low X No data No Baseline High XI High High No Baseline Low Medium Medium No data No data High Medium Low No data No data No data Low No Baseline Medium Low Low Low Low High High Low No data No data High High No Baseline High No data High No Baseline XII High High Medium Medium No Baseline CARAGA Low Low High No Baseline No baseline * Baseline data (1993) were based on the results of the National Survey conducted by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) No Baseline No Baseline No data No data High No Baseline High High No Baseline High High Medium No data No data No data Medium No Baseline Low Low No data No data High High Low No data No data High High ARMM High High Low High High Low No data No data High High High No data No data No data High NCR High High High High High High No data No data High High Medium Low No data No data High Source: 17 Sub-national Progress Reports on the Millennium Development Goals S O C I A L W A T C H P H I L I P P I N E S
Missing Targets: An alternative MDG midterm report What are we missing here As in the 2003 and 2005 reports the overall picture conveyed in the 2007 report has been consistently rosy. It’s as if government need only to keep the momentum where it’s doing all right, focus on where it’s lagging behind, then the country should be on its way to meeting its MDG targets. Really The data cannot be taken at face value, to begin with. How they are used to support the overall picture has to be examined more carefully, if only to disprove the negative view of Philippine reality held by many, to say nothing about regular surveys done by the Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and other research institutions. One cannot really be sure about the overall picture an MDG report projects. Are we talking real progress here A “better” indicator value may reflect an improvement in the actual situation, a revision of data, or a combination of both. UN statisticians have cautioned that many indicators are sensitive to natural fluctuations in small reference populations. A drop in the girls-to-boys’ ratio at any level of education, for example, may reflect a natural fluctuation in the sex ratio, rather than that a larger proportion of girls than boys is going to school now than before. Or a reduction in poverty rate may be exploited to draw a rosier picture than if one highlights the sheer size of the population beneath the poverty and hunger thresholds or the depth of deprivation. Poverty statistics provide clues but tell only so much. Their positive significance would diminish greatly if set against inequality indicators. The numbers speak mostly of national averages which tend to paper over realities of deprivation and inequality between urban and rural, across regions, social classes, gender, households. Some data just don’t seem to add up. Or maybe our perspectives and analysis simply differ. Tables 3, 4 and 5 are illustrative. They depict a mixed picture at best. For one, they underline the need for data reconciliation and improvement of data quality. But more important, they suggest that we need to go beyond the numbers. Table 3 shows the Philippines falling further behind and this is consistent with Social Watch 2007 global report that ranked the Philippines 77th or very low. But Tables 4 and 5 show the country as doing positively on most MDG goals and indicators and, somewhat counter intuitively, contradicts many perceptions, surveys, and assessments that the country is doing very poorly. These three tables have been reconstructed from the data and information provided by the 2006 and 2007 progress reports of the UN-ESCAP, UNDP and ADB. The 2006 report updated the 2005 report A Future Within Reach. The 2007 midterm report updated the data in the 2006 report. Table 3 was derived from texts of the section Overall country assessment on pages 6-7 of the 2006 report. Table 4 was culled out from Table 2 of the 2006 report. Table 5 was first sorted out of the Statistical Appendix of the 2006 report then corrected based on the 2007 report. The classification of countries is based on indicator values obtained from the continuously evolving data base of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Early achievers means that the target has already been met in the year of the latest observation, thus the required rate of change equals zero. On track means that the absolute estimated rate of progress is larger than or equal to the absolute required rate of change. Slow progress means that the absolute estimated rate of progress is smaller than or equal to the absolute required rate of change. Regressing means that the sign of the estimated rate of progress is the opposite of the sign of the required rate of change. For indicators without explicit quantitative target, no required rate of change can be calculated so that classification is based on the estimated rate of change alone. The rate of change is positive or negative if the target is to reduce from the baseline value. On track means the rate of change equals zero. A number of shortcomings should be considered, however. One, the measure does not reflect by “how much” a country is off track for any given indicator. A country that is slightly off track is counted in the same way as a country that is moving rapidly away from the target. Two, each indicator is implicitly “weighted” equally, irrespective of its contribution to “overall MDG progress”. Three, a country may make rapid progress and be on track for an indicator, but still may have a serious remaining problem. Table 3 shows where the Philippines stands relative to other countries in the region. The country is classed as falling further behind, along with the only other ASEAN 5 member in the group, Indonesia, and also S O C I A L W A T C H P H I L I P P I N E S
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Page 5 and 6: C O N T E N T S Key to Acronyms....
Page 7 and 8: FIES FIVIMS FLEMMS FNRI FP FPIC FRM
Page 9: F O R E W O R D The end is near. It
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Missing Targets: An alternative MDG
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Table A2.1: Annual Per Capita Pover
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Table A2.3: Annual Per Capita Food
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Table A3.1: Table A3.1. Annual Per
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Table A3.3: Annual Per Capita Food
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Table A3.5: Poverty Incidence of Fa
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Table A4: Annual Per Capita Poverty
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Table A6.3: Environmental Health Re
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Table A6.9: Percent of Families wit
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Table B.3: Health Indicators: Liveb
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Table B4.3: Health and Nutrition In
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Table B6.1: Health Indicators: Mate
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Table B9.2: Education Indicators: S
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Table B10.2 Reconstructed Cohort Su
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Table B11.1: National Elementary Ac
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Table B11.2: National Secondary Ach
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Table C3.2: Labor Productivity, by
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