CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

12 Conflict Barometer 2008
Europe
The total number of conflicts monitored in Europe was 65. Only one conflict was terminated in 2008 [→ Macedonia
(Kosovo)], and no new conflicts emerged. Whereas no highly violent conflicts had been registered in Europe in 2007,
2008 saw a steep increase to four high-intensity conflicts, with one war [→ Russia - Georgia] and three severe crises
being fought [→ Georgia (Abkhazia); Georgia (South Ossetia); Russia (Islamist rebels/Ingushetia)]. The most frequent
conflict item in Europe was secession, followed by an almost even number of conflicts concerning autonomy, territory,
system/ideology, and international power, respectively. While the only war in 2008 was led for international power [→
Russia - Georgia], the three severe crises were fought over secession, and, in the case of the Islamist insurrection in
Ingushetia, also system/ideology [→ Georgia (Abkhazia); Georgia (South Ossetia); Russia (Islamist rebels/Ingushetia)].
The 14 crises observed also dealt with secession in the majority of cases, closely followed by system/ideology – in
the case of the various Islamist insurgencies in the North Caucasus indeed in combination with the latter. Whereas
all 14 autonomy conflicts in 2008 were conducted non-violently, 13 out of 20 twenty secession conflicts were violent,
perhaps indicating a connection between radical demands and radical measures peculiar to Europe. This was mostly
the case in the Caucasus but also applied to certain western democracies [→ France (FLNC/Corsica); Spain (ETA,
PNV/Basque Provinces); United Kingdom (IRA et al./Northern Ireland)]. In contrast, territory and resources were relatively
peaceful conflict items, with only one violent conflict among them [→ Armenia - Azerbaijan]. The sub-regions
with the greatest number of registered conflicts within Europe were the Caucasus and the Balkans with 17 and 16 conflicts,
respectively. Whereas the situation in southeast Europe slightly eased, the situation in the Caucasus drastically
deteriorated. Southeast Europe continued to feature a large number of conflicts, of which only two remained violent
[→ Greece (leftwing militants); Serbia (Kosovo)], while two actually deescalated to manifest conflicts [→ Macedonia
(Albanian minority/northwestern Macedonia); Serbia (Wahhabis/Sandzak)]. Fears that Kosovo’s unilateral declaration
of independence on February 17, which was backed by the USA and many EU countries but opposed by Russia [→
Serbia (Kosovo)], would accelerate nationalist separatism in neighboring countries remained largely unfulfilled. The
political consequences of the events surrounding Kosovo’s independence were more serious than the conflict’s intensity
level communicates, however. Perhaps in connection with this controversial move, the conflicts between Georgia and
its breakaway republics gained new momentum and escalated to severe crises early in August [→ Georgia (Abkhazia);
Georgia (South Ossetia)]. The related conflict between Russia and Georgia even turned into a war [→ Russia - Georgia],
followed by Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Georgia’s failed attempt at
recovering South Ossetia and Russia’s harsh intervention sent tremors through east Europe. Russia’s military reaction
to alleged threats to its citizens and allies in Georgia fueled anxieties of other pro-western post-Soviet states, some of
them with substantial Russian minorities of their own [→ Estonia (Russian-speaking minority); Latvia (Russian-speaking
minority); Russia - Estonia; Russia - Latvia; Russia - Ukraine]. These fears increasingly led to calls for military deterrents
reminiscent of the Cold War era [→ USA - Russia (missile system)]. In addition, the security situation between the
Black Sea and the Caspian Sea also suffered from three crises in the former Soviet republics of the southern Caucasus
[→ Armenia (opposition); Armenia - Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)] and especially the various regional
insurgencies aiming for independent Islamic statehood in Russia’s North Caucasus. The latter accounted for five more
crises and one severe crisis [→ Russia (Islamist rebels/Chechnya); Russia (Islamist rebels/Ingushetia) etc.].
Conflict Intensities in Europe in 2008 compared to
2007
Frequency of Conflict Items in 2008 in Europe by
Intensity Groups
40
35
30
2007
2008
30
30
25
low Intensity
medium Intensity
high Intensity
number of conflicts
25
20
15
20
17
24
21
14
frequency
20
15
10
12
7
10
14
5
10
10
5
0
3
0 0
latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war
1
5
0
territory
1
secession
3
decolonisation
autonomy
system/ideology
6
4
1 1 1
1
national power
regional predominance
international
power
resources
6
other
2
Overview: Conflicts in Europe in 2008
Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties 2 Conflict items Start Change 3 Int. 4
Armenia (opposition) opposition vs. government national power 2003 3