CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

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46 Conflict Barometer 2008 Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties 2 Conflict items Start Change 3 Int. 4 Colombia (AUC) AUC vs. government system/ideology, regional predominance, resources Colombia (ELN)* ELN vs. government system/ideology, regional predominance, resources Colombia (FARC - ELN)* FARC vs. ELN system/ideology, regional predominance, resources Colombia (FARC) FARC vs. government system/ideology, regional predominance, resources Colombia (various indigenous groups) various indigenous groups vs. government 1995 3 1964 2 2006 3 1964 4 system/ideology, resources 2005 3 Colombia - Ecuador Colombia vs. Ecuador international power 2005 2 Colombia - Venezuela (Monjes islands)* Colombia - Venezuela (system) Costa Rica - Nicaragua (Rio San Juan)* Colombia vs. Venezuela territory, resources 1945 1 Colombia vs. Venezuela system/ideology, international power 2004 2 Costa Rica vs. Nicaragua territory 1945 1 Ecuador (opposition)* opposition vs. government system/ideology 1980 2 Guatemala (various opposition groups)* Guatemala - Belize (territory)* rightwing militant groups vs. leftwing militant groups system/ideology, national power 1960 2 Guatemala vs. Belize territory 1981 1 Haiti (opposition) Aristide followers vs. Aristide opponents national power 1986 3 Mexico (APPO)* APPO vs. government system/ideology 2006 2 Mexico (drug cartels) drug cartels vs. government regional predominance, resources 2007 4 Mexico (EPR/Guerrero)* EPR vs. government autonomy, system/ideology 1995 2 Mexico (EZLN/Chiapas)* EZLN vs. government autonomy, system/ideology, resources, other 1994 2 Mexico (opposition)* opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 2006 2 Nicaragua (various opposition groups) Nicaragua - Colombia (sea border) various opposition groups vs. government system/ideology, national power 2008 NEW 3 Nicaragua vs. Colombia territory, resources 1945 2 Panama (opposition) opposition vs. government system/ideology 2008 NEW 3 Paraguay (opposition) opposition vs. government system/ideology, resources 1989 3 Peru (opposition) opposition vs. government system/ideology, resources 2008 NEW 3 Peru (Shining Path) Shining Path vs. government system/ideology, regional predominance 1980 3 Peru - Chile (border)* Peru vs. Chile territory, resources 1945 2 Uruguay - Argentina (Uruguay River)* Uruguay vs. Argentina resources 2006 1 USA - Cuba (Guantanamo)* USA vs. Cuba territory 1959 1 USA - Cuba (system)* USA vs. Cuba system/ideology 1959 2 USA - Mexico (border fence)* USA vs. Mexico other 2001 1 USA - Venezuela (system)* USA vs. Venezuela system/ideology 2001 2 Venezuela (oppostion)* opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 2000 2 1 2 3 4 cf. overview table for Europe Bolivia (opposition) Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 1983 Conflict parties: opposition vs. government Conflict items: autonomy, system/ideology, national power, resources The system conflict concerning autonomy, the new constitution, and the reallocation of profits from the country’s resources between the opposition movement of the wealthy eastern lowland provinces and the government of President Evo Morales and its indigenous supporters continued. On 12/09/07, the Constituent Assembly approved the text of a new national constitution. The rightwing opposition, which had boycotted the session, criticized the vote as illegal. The governors of the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija, who did not accept the new constitution, announced an autonomy referendum for Santa Cruz. Despite the National Electoral Court (NEC) declaring the referendum illegal,
The Americas 47 the citizens of Santa Cruz overwhelmingly voted in favor of autonomy on May 4. The central government refused to acknowledge the ballot. From June 1 to 22, referenda in Beni, Pando, and Tarija also brought results in favor of autonomy. Several of Morales’s indigenous supporters were injured at election rallies. In a national recall referendum on August 10, called by Morales in response to the crisis, the president received overwhelming support. Because the referendum also saw the opposition prefects approved, the political deadlock continued, however. On August 19, anti-Morales activists held general strikes in the eastern provinces to protest against the president’s plans to divert energy revenues towards his national pension scheme. The strikes were accompanied by clashes between the police, protesters, and Morales supporters. Morales deployed the army to the region to protect government-owned oil and gas installations. On September 3, the opposition governors threatened to set up road blocks and cut off natural gas exports. In Beni, militant rightwing groups threatened to occupy military posts and expel the regional army chief if he failed to submit to the regional governor’s command. On September 2, the NEC invalidated a presidential decree calling a constitutional referendum for December 7. After anti-government protesters had seized gas and oil installations, causing a pipeline explosion in Tarija on September 10, the government deployed additional troops. On September 11, almost 30 indigenous supporters of President Morales were killed in a massacre in Pando. The government declared a state of emergency there, which remained in effect for over two months. The army detained Governor Leopoldo Fernández, whom Morales accused of hiring gunmen to massacre pro-government supporters. Morales also expelled the US ambassador on September 11, accusing him of conspiring to dissolve the country. On September 15, the Union of South American Nations leaders expressed their full support for Morales, saying they would not tolerate any attempt at a coup or rupture of institutional order. From September 12 on, opposition leaders struck a more conciliatory note, seeking negotiations and offering to remove roadblocks. Talks between the government and the opposition lead to an agreement on October 20 which foresaw holding the constitutional referendum on 01/25/09 as well as important changes to the original constitution draft and elections in December 2009. (eg, aog) Chile (Mapuche) Intensity: 3 Change: NEW Start: 2008 Conflict parties: Mapuche groups vs. government Conflict items: resources, other A violent new conflict erupted between indigenous Mapuche groups and the government over natural resources, e.g. water and forest. On January 3, Matiás Vatrileo Quezada, a 22-year-old Mapuche student, was killed during a farm occupation in the town of Vilcún, presumably by police forces. The incident provoked violent protests by Mapuche groups. On January 4, two trucks were burned in the southern region of Temucuicui. The same day, two forestry company helicopters were attacked while landing. Increasing international pressure forced the government to set up a commission on Mapuche affairs. Nevertheless, on August 6, a bomb exploded at the Brazilian embassy in the capital, Santiago, which was attributed to Mapuche groups. Previously, Mapuche militants had been bombing banks and offices of international companies operating in Mapuche areas. On October 16, five government officials were attacked by an armed Mapuche mob. (cr) Colombia (AUC) Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 1995 Conflict parties: AUC vs. government Conflict items: system/ideology, regional predominance, resources The conflict concerning regional predominance and the orientation of the political system between the rightwing paramilitaries of the United Self-Defense Force (AUC) and the government once more turned violent. The peace process between the AUC, the umbrella organization of the paramilitary forces, and the government had led to the demobilization of, in total, approx. 30,000 AUC fighters by 2007. However, in 2008 the former paramilitary groups appeared to start to rearm and recruit new fighters, especially in poor neighborhoods. Those unwilling to enlist were threatened or killed. According to a Colombian NGO, approx. 270,000 citizens were forced from their homes between January and mid-2008 due to attacks and the presence of new drug-financed paramilitary groups and FARC [→ Colombia (FARC)]. On April 29, police forces killed Victor Manuel Mejia Munera, one of the country’s most important drug lords and leader of a newly established paramilitary splinter group, together with two of his bodyguards in the northern province of Antioquia. Furthermore, President Álvaro Uribe extradited more than 30 former AUC leaders to the USA over the course of the year, arguing that they were disrespecting peace terms, e.g. concerning possession of weapons and their continued involvement in drug business. After Colombian paramilitary forces had conducted an attack in the Ecuadorian border town of Borbón on November 2, in which one Ecuadorian died [→ Colombia - Ecuador], Ecuador sent troops to its border with Colombia on November 6. (jjh) Colombia (FARC) Intensity: 4 Change: Start: 1964 Conflict parties: FARC vs. government Conflict items: system/ideology, regional predominance, resources The conflict concerning regional predominance and the political system between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the government remained highly violent. In comparison to the previous year, however, FARC violence considerably decreased due to a dramatic loss of strength. Over the course of the year, the rebel group was seriously hit by a string of combined military and police actions aiming to eliminate leading FARC figures and thereby weaken the rebel group’s morale and logistic capabilities. On February 11, military forces killed Pérez Contreras, leader of the
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