CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

40 Conflict Barometer 2008
in the same region. Two Somaliland policemen were
wounded in Las Anod in Sool region when a grenade
was hurled into the police station on November 2. A new
anti-Somaliland rebel group called Somali Unity Defense
Alliance (SUDA) claimed to have killed three Somaliland
soldiers in an attack on the central police office in Las
Anod three days later. (ahe, sk)
Somalia (UIC)
Intensity: 5 Change: Start: 2006
Conflict parties: UIC vs. TFG
Conflict items: system/ideology, national power
The war about national power and system between Islamist
insurgents and the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) of Somalia continued for the third year running.
The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) consisted of
various relatively independent groups, among them the
al-Shabaab group. UIC continued to fight the TFG,
backed by Ethiopian troops, and troops of the AU mission
AMISOM. In 2008, the fighting spread from Mogadishu,
where the main fighting had taken place in
2007, to other parts of the country, e.g. the Bay region,
Galgaduud region, Mudug, and Hiiraan regions. Attacks
on international aid workers increased significantly, leading
to the withdrawal of a large number of international
humanitarian staff. Over the course of the year, Islamist
insurgents increasingly turned against AMISOM troops.
After TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf had appointed Nur
Hassan Hussein alias ”Nur Ade” as the new prime minister
in November 2007, the new government moved from
its base in Baidoa to Mogadishu on January 20. Nevertheless,
the parliament stayed in Baidoa. Throughout the
year, violent clashes in Mogadishu on an almost daily basis,
often centered on the Baraka market, claimed a high
number of lives both among fighters and civilians. TFG
and Ethiopian troops often responded to insurgent attacks
from populated areas by shelling these spots. Violence
peaked in April, June, and September, when fighting
between the TFG, Ethiopian troops and AMISOM
forces, on the one hand, and insurgents, on the other, left
hundreds dead and caused several thousands to flee.
Moreover, insurgents loyal to the UIC repeatedly seized
control of several important towns in Somalia, including
Jowhar and Dheere, in early 2008, and Somalia’s third
largest city, Kismayo, in August. The deteriorating situation
caused the UN Security Council to extend the AMI-
SOM mandate by six months on February 20. However,
only 1,600 Ugandan and 600 Burundian troops of the
originally earmarked 8,000 troops were sent since the
first deployments in March 2007. The USA launched a
missile attack in the southern Somali town of Dhoble targeting
a suspected al-Qaeda member on March 3, which
killed at least four civilians. On April 30, a US missile attack
in the central Somali town of Dusamareb killed ten
to 30 people, including a number of al-Shabaab leaders
such as the military leader and suspected al-Qaeda
member Aden Hashi Farah Ayro. In May, the TFG and
the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), an
opposition alliance of Islamists and other members of
the opposition based in Eritrea, began peace talks in Djibouti
attended by a UN envoy. Following UN-mediated
talks from May 31 to June 9, ARS and the TFG signed
a peace deal. The treaty stipulated a 90-day-ceasefire
to come into force after one month, and the withdrawal
of Ethiopian troops within 120 days, given the timely deployment
of a UN peacekeeping force. A hardliner faction
of ARS, however, immediately rejected the peace
deal due to its failure to establish a definitive deadline
for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, resulting in a split
within ARS. New ceasefires and deals were signed on
August 18, October 26, and November 26, reaffirming
these agreements, the last of which added propositions
for power-sharing. However, TFG President Yusuf as
well as al-Shabaab and the hardliner faction of ARS were
not involved. The humanitarian situation in southern and
central Somalia deteriorated. By August, the number of
people requiring humanitarian aid had risen to about 3.2
million people. In March, the number of IDPs had already
reached 745,000. Furthermore, the deteriorated
security situation and disintegration of state authority led
to an increasing number of pirate attacks in the Gulf of
Aden. Heavily armed Somali pirate gangs attacked approx.
100 vessels, hijacking 40, and thereby disrupting
one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. On November
18, pirates captured the largest ship ever, the 300-meterlong
Saudi-owned supertanker ”Sirius Star”. NATO and
various states increased their patrols to prevent hijacking.
On November 19, an Indian navy warship destroyed
a suspected Somali pirate mother ship which originally
had been a Thai fishing trawler. The Islamist insurgents
condemned the capture of a Muslim-owned ship and
sent fighters to Haradheere to attack the pirates. However,
the Islamists, especially the al-Shabaab, seemed
to fund their insurgency at least in part by taking a cut
of pirates’ ransom money and to use pirate ships for importing
weapons and foreign fighters. (tb)
South Africa (xenophobes - immigrants)
Intensity: 3 Change: NEW Start: 2008
Conflict parties: xenophobes vs. immigrants
Conflict items: regional predominance
On the background of a deteriorating economic situation
and high crime rates, tensions between parts of the
South African population and different immigrant groups
from neighboring countries erupted in a wave of xenophobic
violence. Xenophobic incidents visibly increased
from late 2007 on. In February and March 2008, attacks
against immigrants in the townships of the capital,
Pretoria, left 13 people dead and displaced 1,600 more.
In May, a wave of anti-immigrant violence against Zimbabweans,
Mozambicans, Malawians, Nigerians, and
other African nationals was reported from seven of South
Africa’s nine provinces. Reportedly, in one case groups
of men walked from house to house, asking the inhabitants
whether they were Zulu or immigrants. Paul Verryn,
bishop of the Central Methodist Church in Johannesburg,
to which many immigrants had fled, accused
the police of passivity and of having lost control completely.
According to official police data, 22 immigrants
were killed while approx. 6,000 people sought shelter
in police stations, churches, and community centers.
Two people were killed and approx. 40 injured during