CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

28 Conflict Barometer 2008
Angola (FLEC/Cabinda)
Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 1975
Conflict parties: FLEC vs. government
Conflict items: secession, resources
The conflict between the Front for the Liberation of the
Enclave of Cabinda - Armed Forces of Cabinda (FLEC-
FAC) and the government about the future status of the
oil-rich enclave of Cabinda remained violent. FLEC-FAC,
a faction opposed to the 2006 Memorandum of Understanding
between FLEC and the government, continued
its hit-and-run attacks on government forces. On
March 3, a Portuguese worker and three soldiers were
killed in a FLEC-FAC ambush. Despite these incidents,
implementation of the peace memorandum continued.
António Bento Bembe, a former rebel leader and now
chairman of the Cabindan Forum for Dialog (FCD), highlighted
the integration of former FLEC fighters into the
Angolan Armed Forces (AAF) and the National Police as
well as the extension of the special status of Cabinda.
By 2008, 80 to 90 percent of former FLEC fighters had
been demobilized or joined the army. (bs)
Burundi (Hutu - Tutsi)
Intensity: 2 Change: Start: 1962
Conflict parties: various Hutu parties vs. various Tutsi parties
Conflict items: national power
For the third year running, the national power conflict between
Hutu and Tutsi in Burundi was carried out without
the use of violence. From 2005 on, the country was ruled
by the former Hutu rebel movement National Council for
the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of
Democracy (CNDD-FDD). On 12/19/07, the UN political
mission BINUB was extended until December 2008.
Meanwhile, the government lagged behind the scheduled
creation of a transitional justice mechanism (a Truth
and Reconciliation Commission and a Special Court)
supposed to deal with the war crimes committed in the
civil war. Following repeated pressure by the UN, the
government announced in October that the process of
popular consultations on transitional justice, financed by
the UN, was to start in January 2009. With the integration
of many former Hutu rebel combatants, the domination
of the Tutsi ethnic group in the Burundian army was
overcome. However, in 2008 still only a few Hutu senior
officers held positions on decision-making levels of the
army. In April, hundreds of Burundian soldiers scheduled
for demobilization refused to complete the process
over financial issues, questioning whether the legal ethnic
quota of 50 percent Hutu and 50 percent Tutsi in the
make-up of the Burundian army had been respected in
the selection of those to be demobilized. On August 14,
the UNHCR set up a pilot-project model village where
formerly displaced Hutu and Tutsi were resettled side by
side to seek reconciliation after decades of ethnic violence.
More than 450,000 Burundian refugees returned
home since 2002. Nevertheless, more than 100,000
Burundian refugees still remained in Tanzania alone by
mid-2008. According to the International Crisis Group,
the peace process between the two ethnic groups might
be threatened when the last active Hutu rebel group, the
Palipehutu-FNL led by Agathon Rwasa, participates in
the general elections in 2010, as the rebels remained
opposed to the ethnic quota system in the political system
and the army. In June 2008, Palipehutu-FNL was
denied recognition as a political party because of the
ethnic reference in its name, in accordance with the Burundian
constitution. The rebels dismissed the idea of
a name change [→ Burundi (Palipehutu-FNL Rwasa)].
In addition, the worsening situation between Hutu and
Tutsi in the DR Congo raised fears of renewed ethnically
motivated violence in Burundi, especially considering
that Congolese Tutsi rebel leader Laurent Nkunda was
also recruiting Burundian Tutsi fighters [→ DR Congo
(CNDP)]. (hlm)
Burundi (Palipehutu-FNL Rwasa)
Intensity: 4 Change: Start: 2005
Conflict parties: Palipehutu-FNL faction led by Agathon
Rwasa vs. government
Conflict items: national power
The conflict concerning national power between the
Hutu rebel movement Palipehutu-FNL, led by Agathon
Rwasa, and the government of President Pierre Nkurunziza,
also a Hutu, escalated. Sporadic fighting continued
throughout the deadlocked negotiations on the implementation
of the September 2006 ceasefire treaty during
the first months of the year. In late December 2007 and
early January, Rwasa’s forces attacked military positions
in the province of Bubanza, displacing more than 8,000
persons. In March, talks between the conflict parties in
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, focused on renewed participation
of the rebels in the Joint Verification and Monitoring
Mechanism (JVMM) they had left in July 2007,
and on Rwasa’s return from his exile in Tanzania. Other
unresolved issues were to be dealt with by a Political Directorate
(PD) to be established by South African chief
mediator Charles Nqakula, whose mandate had been
extended in February against Palipehutu-FNL’s accusations
of bias. The PD, comprised of representatives of
both conflict parties as well as - among others - the AU,
the EU, South Africa, and Tanzania, was established in
spring. In March, the government and Palipehutu-FNL
announced that negotiations would resume on April 1
and be completed by July. However, the date passed
without any talks having begun. Instead, fighting resumed
in the capital, Bujumbura, in the night of April 16
to 17. The rebels started shelling the capital with mortars
in what the army described as a ”major attack”, claiming
the lives of at least ten people. The next day, the army
launched a counterattack, in which at least four soldiers
and ten rebels died. According to Palipehutu-FNL, the
army had started the fighting. Clashes in and outside
the capital continued throughout April, killing more than
30 people altogether. The UN and the USA strongly
condemned the fighting, which the US blamed entirely
on Palipehutu-FNL. Both urged Palipehutu-FNL to return
to the JVMM. Early in May, Palipehutu-FNL proposed
to resume ceasefire talks with the government in
mid-May. At the same time, the army killed 50 rebels
in the heaviest fighting since the rebel’s attack on Bujumbura,
near Kabezi, 20 km south of the capital. Two