CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

2 Conflict Barometer 2008
tion)]. One conflict in the Americas was considered to
have ended in 2008. In Asia and Oceania, two conflicts
had ended in 2007, i.e. Singapore (Malays) and Vietnam
(KKNLF). In the Middle East and Maghreb, no conflict
ended either in 2007 or 2008, and no new conflict broke
out in 2008.
In order to reveal a long-term trend, the five intensity
levels are categorized into three groups: The two nonviolent
levels are summarized as low intensity, crises as
medium intensity, and severe crises and wars as conflicts
of high intensity. The graph below also displays
the total number of conflicts observed. As the graph
shows, the number of conflicts observed per year has
risen more or less continuously. Most of the conflicts are
low-intensity conflicts. Regarding high-intensity conflicts,
a continuous and - for the most part - regular increase,
interrupted by minor phases of deescalation is evident.
number of conflicts
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Global Conflicts of low, medium and high Intensity
1945 to 2008
low intensity
medium intensity
high intensity
Total
........ .... ........................................................................................................................................................
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
The all-time high was reached with 49 high intensity
conflicts in 1992, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet
Union. After a spectacular drop to only 30 in 2005,
the number of highly violent conflicts rose again to 36
in 2006, then decreased to 32 in 2007, and finally rose
again to 39 in 2008 – the highest number since 2004.
The number of crises had soared to previously unknown
heights in recent years, peaking with 113 in 2005. However,
this trend was reversed in 2006, with the number
of crises decreasing again, now for the third year. Nevertheless,
the number of crises remained on a very high
level.
Analysis intrastate - interstate
With 254 intrastate and 91 interstate cases, respectively,
more than two thirds of the conflicts monitored in 2008
were internal conflicts, as in the past years.
As only eight out of 91 of the interstate conflicts were
conducted with the use of violence, intrastate conflicts
accounted for the vast majority of violent and especially
highly violent conflicts.
While 88 of the 95 crises were intrastate, seven interstate
crises were observed: Armenia - Azerbaijan, Chad
- Sudan, Eritrea - Djibouti, Israel - Lebanon,
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
.
.
.
number of conflicts
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Number of Intra- and Interstate Conflicts in 2008 by
Intensity Level
interstate
intrastate
41 41
42
87 88
7
30
0 1
latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war
Pakistan - India, Thailand - Cambodia (border), and USA
- Pakistan. Two of these, i.e. Armenia - Azerbaijan,
and Chad - Sudan, had already been crises in 2006 and
2007, while Israel - Lebanon had already been a crisis in
2007, and a severe crisis in 2006. Eight of the nine wars
as well as all of the 30 severe crises were conducted
within a state.
number of conflicts
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1945
Intra- and Interstate Conflicts of high Intensity 1945
to 2008
intrastate
interstate
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Only one of the highly violent conflicts, the short war
between Russia and Georgia, was fought out between
two states, constituting the first war between two states
since the 2003 war between the USA and Iraq. The last
severe crisis between two states had been carried out
between Israel and Lebanon in 2006, while no highly
violent conflict had been interstate in 2007. Long-term
analysis, for which both high-intensity categories, i.e.
severe crisis and war, were summarized in one group,
clearly shows that the predominance of highly violent
intrastate conflicts is observable from the very beginning
of the examination period.
1980
1985
1990
Regional Development
As in the previous year, almost a third of all conflicts
(111) were located in Asia and Oceania. Africa ranked
second with 79, Europe third with 65, the Middle East
and Maghreb fourth with 47, and the Americas fifth with
43. Asia and Oceania also accounted for the largest
number of non-violent conflicts with 68, as well as of
crises with 31. Africa again came second with 30. Concerning
highly violent conflicts, these two regions ranked
1995
2000
8
2005
.
.