CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

HIIK
The HEIDELBERG INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESEARCH (HIIK) at the Department of Political
Science, University of Heidelberg is a registered non-profit association. It is dedicated to research, evaluation and documentation
of intra- and interstate political conflicts. The HIIK evolved from the research project ’COSIMO’ (Conflict
Simulation Model) led by Prof. Dr. Frank R. Pfetsch (University of Heidelberg) and financed by the German Research
Association (DFG) in 1991.
Conflict
We define conflicts as the clashing of interests (positional differences) over national values of some duration and magnitude
between at least two parties (organized groups, states, groups of states, organizations) that are determined to
pursue their interests and achieve their goals.
Conflict items
Territory
Secession
Decolonization
Autonomy
System/ideology
National power
Regional predominance
International power
Resources
Others
Conflict intensities
State of
violence
Non-violent
Violent
Intensity
group
Low
Level of
intensity
Name of
intensity
1 Latent
conflict
2 Manifest
conflict
Definition
A positional difference over definable values of national meaning is considered
to be a latent conflict if demands are articulated by one of the parties and perceived
by the other as such.
A manifest conflict includes the use of measures that are located in the stage
preliminary to violent force. This includes for example verbal pressure, threatening
explicitly with violence, or the imposition of economic sanctions.
Medium 3 Crisis A crisis is a tense situation in which at least one of the parties uses violent force
in sporadic incidents.
High
4 Severe
crisis
A conflict is considered to be a severe crisis if violent force is used repeatedly
in an organized way.
5 War A war is a violent conflict in which violent force is used with a certain continuity
in an organized and systematic way. The conflict parties exercise extensive
measures, depending on the situation. The extent of destruction is massive and
of long duration.
In this publication, the intensity of each conflict as shown in the tables is the highest intensity reached in the course of
the year. Therefore, conflicts may, for instance, be classified as severe crises although there may have been no more
fighting in the second half of the year.
The present Conflict Barometer 2008 reflects our current state of research. Because conflict data even of previous
years is continuously reviewed, this edition’s data might differ from older editions. Therefore, if you wish to trace a
conflict over time, please contact us in order to receive up-to-date time series evaluations.
The HIIK assumes no liability for the accuracy of the data printed in this publication.
Editorial deadline: November 30, 2008