CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

24 Conflict Barometer 2008
uary 23, Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis undertook
the first official visit to neighboring Turkey by a
Greek political leader in 48 years. On May 26, the General
Staff chiefs of Turkey and Greece, Mehmet Yasar
Büyükanit and Dimitrios Grapsas, met in the Turkish capital,
Ankara, to discuss security problems stemming from
territorial disputes. They agreed on more frequent visits
as a move to better mutual understanding. On October
28, Turkish Defense Minister Mehmet Vecdi Gönül was
the first bearer of his office in history to attend a Greek
military parade in the city of Thessaloniki. On November
15, Greece protested the presence of a Norwegianflagged
oil research vessel escorted by a Turkish frigate
in a part of the southern Aegean Sea claimed by both
countries. The Turkish frigate and a Greek gunboat
stood facing each other for hours in the disputed area,
with both captains demanding each other’s retreat. After
the Norwegian vessel had stopped its activities, the
warships withdrew. (aj)
United Kingdom (IRA et al./Northern Ireland)
Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 1968
Conflict parties: IRA, Real IRA, Continuity IRA, Sinn Féin,
SDLP vs. government, UDA, UVF, DUP,
UUP
Conflict items: secession
Tensions between the two antagonistic communities in
the conflict concerning the secession of Northern Ireland
from the United Kingdom slightly increased. The
Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont was deadlocked
from June till November over a stand-off between the
two coalition parties, the pro-British Democratic Unionist
Party (DUP) and pro-Irish Sinn Féin, caused by disagreements
concerning the devolution of the judicial
system. On November 18, however, both parties announced
that they had agreed a deal ending the dispute
by committing themselves to devolution of powers, albeit
without a precise timetable. The parties also argued
over the introduction of an Irish language act, which was
rejected by the DUP. On September 3, the Independent
Monitoring Commission (IMC) found the Provisional Irish
Republican Army (IRA) had relinquished its paramilitary
structure. Nevertheless, the IMC stated it did not expect
an announcement from the IRA that its army council
would disband. However, paramilitary violence continued.
Dissident Republicans were accused of a series
of terrorist attacks throughout the year, particularly targeting
Northern Irish police officers. The murder of a
police officer in Creggan on June 24 was also attributed
to dissident Republicans. Also, Loyalist terror groups reportedly
still defied the police, and engaged in vigilante
action in working class areas controlled by them. On
July 30, the government set a deadline of six months for
the Loyalist paramilitary groups Ulster Volunteer Force
(UVF) and Ulster Defense Association (UDA) to decommission
their weapons. (jb)
United Kingdom (SNP/Scotland)
Intensity: 1 Change: Start: 2007
Conflict parties: Scottish regional government (SNP) vs.
central government
Conflict items: secession
The secession conflict between the Scottish National
Party (SNP) and the British government continued. The
SNP, whose election manifesto included a referendum
on independence by 2010, had emerged from the 2007
Scottish parliamentary election as the strongest party,
and proceeded to form a minority government with
Alex Salmond as First Minister. However, the pro-
Union opposition parties in Holyrood, the Scottish parliament,
made use of their parliamentary majority on
12/06/07 by voting for an independently chaired commission
to review devolution, in effect rivaling the SNP’s
”national conversation” on independence. On October
14, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the Treasury’s
multi-billion pound bail-out of Scottish banks proved the
strength of the Union. Salmond accused Brown of using
the economic situation to attack Scottish independence.
(aog)
USA - Russia (missile system)
Intensity: 2 Change: Start: 2007
Conflict parties: USA vs. Russia
Conflict items: international power
The conflict between the USA and Russia over international
power continued. Both countries had been involved
in a dispute over a US-led missile defense system
to be stationed in the Czech Republic and Poland since
early 2007. On February 28, Russian President Vladimir
Putin announced an increase in military spending by billions
of dollars, especially for the air force. The Russian
government justified its decision with the need to defend
its borders. On July 8, the USA cited the nuclear threat
posed by Iran as a justification of its missile system [→
Iran - USA]. The same day, the Czech Republic authorized
the USA to install radar units for the missile system.
Six days later, Russian oil deliveries to the Czech
Republic temporarily stopped. Following a similar deal
between Poland and the USA on August 14, Russia’s
deputy chief of staff warned Poland on August 15 that
Russia reserved the right to launch a nuclear attack on
the country for hosting US rockets. In his first state-ofthe-nation
address on November 5, new Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would neutralize the
US missile system by deploying short-range missiles in
its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and electronically jam
the American system. (sez)